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Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean and meal market is expected to be downward - biased due to inventory pressure and uncertain supply [4]. - The sugar market is expected to have the international price in a range - bound oscillation, and the domestic sugar price may be slightly stronger but with limited upward space [13]. - The oil market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, affected by the macro - environment and sentiment, and may decline in the short term [19]. - The corn market is expected to have the outer - market corn at the bottom and oscillate, and the domestic corn may gradually establish long - term long positions [26][27]. - The hog market is expected to be weak, with high supply pressure and downward - biased prices [33]. - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong due to rainfall affecting production and quality, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [40]. - The egg market is expected to be weak in the short term, with high supply and general demand, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly [47]. - The apple market is expected to have the futures price oscillate slightly stronger in the short term due to the expected low excellent fruit rate [57]. - The cotton - yarn market is expected to have the US cotton oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton may oscillate slightly weakly with high selling hedging pressure [67][69]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - Outer - market situation: CBOT soybean index fell 0.43% to 1041 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.14% to 282.5 dollars/short ton [2]. - Related information: In October 2025, Brazil's soybean exports are estimated to be 712 million tons, a 60.7% increase from last year. The increase in South American soybeans exported to China will reduce the 9 - 2 - month crushing volume in Brazil and Argentina. UAE's rapeseed imports from July - September 2025 are expected to almost double. As of September 26, domestic soybean inventory increased by 3.63% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory decreased by 4.86% week - on - week [2][3]. - Logic analysis: US soybeans declined slightly due to previous positive factors being fully reflected and the decline of US soybean oil. There is inventory pressure, and the domestic supply is uncertain but the reduction space is limited, so it is expected to be downward - biased [4]. - Strategy suggestions: Consider a small - quantity short position in the soybean meal 05 contract, a small - quantity long position in the near - month rapeseed meal contract, M11 - 1 positive spread, sell soybean meal call options, and sell a wide - straddle structure for rapeseed meal [6][7]. Sugar - Outer - market change: ICE US raw sugar主力 contract fell 0.15 (- 0.92%) to 16.1 cents/pound, and London white sugar主力 contract fell 0.2 (- 0.04%) to 451.1 dollars/ton [8]. - Important information: It is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September will increase by 3.3% year - on - year, and the sugar production will increase by 7.7% year - on - year. As of October 8, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar quantity increased by 39.75 million tons. In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, the sugar production increased while the sales volume and rate changed [9][10]. - Logic analysis: Internationally, the sugar production in the main producing areas is increasing, but the downward space is limited. Domestically, the typhoon may affect the sugarcane production, but the domestic sugar price is affected by the international price [12]. - Trading strategy: The international sugar price is likely to oscillate in a range, and the domestic sugar price may be slightly stronger but with limited upward space. Suggest waiting and seeing for spreads and options [13][14]. Oil - Outer - market situation: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil主力 price changed by - 0.56% to 49.97 cents/pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil主力 price changed by - 1.04% to 4546 ringgit/ton [15]. - Related information: In September, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, imports increased by 33.95% month - on - month, inventory increased by 7.20% month - on - month, and exports increased by 7.69% month - on - month. From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% compared to the same period last month. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will drop to about 1.7 billion tons by the end of the year. Brazilian farmers have sown 12.48% of the expected soybean planting area [16][18]. - Logic analysis: In September, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased unexpectedly. Domestically, soybean oil may gradually de - stock, and rapeseed oil continues to de - stock marginally. Affected by the macro - environment and sentiment, the oil may decline in the short term but is expected to oscillate overall [19]. - Trading strategy: The oil may decline in the short term and oscillate overall. Suggest waiting and seeing first, and consider a light - position long position when the price drops significantly. OI 1 - 5 positive spread idea but do not chase high. Wait and see for options [20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - Outer - market change: CBOT corn futures outer - market declined, and the December主力 contract of US corn fell 1.2% to 414.75 cents/bushel [23]. - Important information: The Agricultural Development Bank of China has introduced ten measures to support grain purchase. The average price of wheat in the main producing areas increased. As of October 2, the average inventory of feed enterprises decreased. As of October 8, the corn inventory of main processing enterprises increased. On October 13, the purchase price in the northern port was relatively weak, and the corn prices in the Northeast and North China continued to decline [24][25]. - Logic analysis: The outer - market US corn is expected to be weak in the short term. Domestically, new - season corn is on the market, and the spot price continues to decline. The 01 corn oscillates at the bottom, and the decline space is relatively small [26]. - Trading strategy: The outer - market December corn oscillates at the bottom, consider short - term long positions on dips. Establish a light - position long position in the 01 corn for short - term operations and set a stop - loss. Gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn. Wait and see for spreads and options [27][29][30]. Hog - Related information: Hog prices are oscillating downward. It is expected that the planned hog slaughter volume of key provincial breeding enterprises in October will increase by 5.48% month - on - month. On October 9, the national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.5% [33]. - Logic analysis: The hog slaughter pressure remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the spot and futures prices are expected to be weak [33]. - Strategy suggestions: Suggest short - selling at high points, LH15 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [35]. Peanut - Important information: The average price of national peanut kernels decreased slightly. Oil mills' procurement is cautious. After the festival, the peanut oil order market weakened, and the price was stable. Some oil mills have no peanut meal inventory. As of October 9, the peanut inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 9.59% week - on - week, and the peanut oil inventory increased by 1.42% week - on - week [36][37]. - Logic analysis: New - season peanuts are on the market, but rainfall affects production and quality. Imports decreased, and the prices of related products are stable. The 01 peanut is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the overall production is expected to be the same as last year [38][40]. - Trading strategy: The 01 peanut oscillates at the bottom, consider light - position short - term long positions in the 01 and 05 peanuts. Wait and see for spreads. Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [40][42]. Egg - Important information: The average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas decreased. In September, the national inventory of laying hens increased, and the monthly output of egg - laying chicks decreased. In the week of October 2, the number of culled laying hens increased, and the average culling age increased. As of October 9, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas decreased, and the inventory in production and circulation links increased. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs and the expected profit per laying hen decreased [44][45][46]. - Trading logic: The supply of laying hens is high, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term, and the near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly [47]. - Trading strategy: Consider short - selling the near - month contract at high points. Wait and see for spreads and options [50][51]. Apple - Important information: As of September 25, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased. In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. During the National Day holiday, new - season apples in Shaanxi and Gansu began to be ordered but not loaded. The new - season apples in Shandong were delayed due to rainfall. The spot price in Shandong was stable, and the profit of storage merchants decreased [53][54][56]. - Trading logic: The fruit diameter in some areas of Shaanxi is small, and the late - maturing Fuji is expected to have a low excellent fruit rate. The opening price is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [57]. - Trading strategy: It is expected that the apple will oscillate strongly in the short term due to the low expected excellent fruit rate. Wait and see for spreads and options [58][63]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Outer - market influence: ICE US cotton fell, and the主力 contract fell 0.69 (1.07%) to 63.77 cents/pound [60]. - Important information: The spot and pre - sale prices of cotton were slightly adjusted, and textile enterprises' procurement intention was general. The mainstream purchase price of hand - picked seed cotton in southern Xinjiang is about 7.0 yuan/kg, and the cottonseed price declined. As of October 3, the cumulative inspection volume of US cotton accounted for 6.4% of the annual estimated output, and the inspection progress was 24% slower year - on - year. The drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise [62][65][66]. - Trading logic: Sino - US trade frictions have little impact on China's cotton supply but may affect downstream consumption and US cotton exports. In the long - term, it is negative for global cotton consumption [67]. - Trading strategy: It is expected that the US cotton will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate slightly weakly. Wait and see for spreads and options [69].
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251013
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-13 11:25