Group 1: Market Information - Fuji apple price index is 109.50, up 0.07 from the next - working - day quote; 6 - fruit average wholesale price is 7.06, up 0.13 [3] - AP01 futures price is 8744, up 111 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 8675, up 153; AP10 is 9175, down 5 [3] - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 1144, down 111 from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in major Chinese producing areas is 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons [6] - In August 2025, the fresh apple export volume is about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume is about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume is 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume is 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - In the previous period, domestic apple transaction prices remained stable. In Shandong, continuous rainfall slowed apple coloring, with little trading at purchase points. In Shaanxi, merchants were actively ordering, and transaction prices were stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan per catty, down 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [8] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the apple ordering price is stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the mainstream apple price is stable, with different prices for different grades and varieties [9] Trading Logic - In some areas of Shaanxi this year, the apple diameter is small, and continuous rainfall has caused water - cracks in apples. The high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low, the opening price is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high. The futures price is expected to remain slightly stronger in the short term [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Apples are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [12] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Group 3: Related Attachments - There are 10 related apple - related charts, including price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract basis, and apple arrival volumes in some markets [17][19][25]
银河期货农产品日报-20251013
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-13 11:25