Shanghai Lonyer(SH:603003) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-13 11:39Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) oscillated at a low level with a slight upward trend. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed movements. The main reason for the overall oscillatory trend of today's futures price is that although the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China, subsequent statements on social media by Trump and Vance were more conciliatory, leading to an oscillating macro - sentiment. Additionally, the near - month contracts rebounded due to CMA CGM's announcement of a November freight rate increase. In the short term, the futures price is likely to continue oscillating. It is necessary to closely monitor the cease - fire process in Gaza and Sino - US relations. Strategically, one can generally remain on the sidelines or attempt a 10 - 12 positive spread strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - Position Management: For those who have already acquired positions but have full capacity or poor booking volumes during the peak season and are worried about falling freight rates (long position in spot), to prevent losses, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's position to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2512, with a selling recommendation and an entry range of 1700 - 1750 [2]. - Cost Management: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they hope to book cabins according to order situations (short position in spot), to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2512, with a buying recommendation and an entry range of 1450 - 1500 [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - As of the close, for the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 1414 lots to 9464 lots, short positions decreased by 1129 lots to 10337 lots, and trading volume decreased by 946 lots to 6566 lots (bilateral) [3]. 3.3利多解读 - On the evening of October 12, US Eastern Time, the US stock futures market rebounded after Friday's sharp decline. Dow Jones futures rose 0.7%, more than 300 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose 0.9% and 1% respectively. Earlier in the morning, US President Trump softened his tone, saying that US - China relations "will be fine" and that the US wants to help China rather than harm it [4]. - CMA CGM officially announced a November price increase. Starting from November 1, the quoted price for the Asia - to - Northern Europe route will rise to $1500/TEU and $2600/FEU [4]. 3.4利空解读 - On October 10, 2025, Trump stated that the US would impose a 100% tariff on China and implement new export controls on key software products [5]. 3.5 EC Basis Daily Changes - For EC2510, the basis was - 97.60 points, with a daily change of - 8.30 points and a weekly change of - 79.09 points [6]. - For EC2512, the basis was - 530.70 points, with a daily change of 8.50 points and a weekly change of 125.81 points [6]. - For EC2602, the basis was - 328.10 points, with a daily change of - 21.90 points and a weekly change of 236.41 points [6]. - For EC2604, the basis was - 66.70 points, with a daily change of - 29.50 points and a weekly change of 81.41 points [6]. - For EC2606, the basis was - 236.2 points, with a daily change of - 34.10 points and a weekly change of - 7.62 points [6]. 3.6 EC Price and Spreads - For EC2510, the closing price was 1129.4 points, with a daily increase of 0.74% and a weekly decrease of 0.84% [8]. - For EC2512, the closing price was 1562.5 points, with a daily decrease of 0.54% and a weekly decrease of 12.07% [8]. - For EC2602, the closing price was 1359.9 points, with a daily increase of 1.64% and a weekly decrease of 19.29% [8]. - For EC2604, the closing price was 1098.5 points, with a daily increase of 1.25% and a weekly decrease of 13.41% [8]. - For EC2606, the closing price was 1268.0 points, with a daily increase of 1.55% and a weekly decrease of 14.53% [8]. - For EC2608, the closing price was 1395.8 points, with a daily decrease of 0.66% and a weekly decrease of 13.69% [8]. 3.7集运现舱报价（CY - CY，上海—鹿特丹） - On October 24, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1095, a $10 increase from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1830, a $20 increase from the previous period [10]. - In late October, for CMA CGM's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1210/1345, a $100 decrease from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2020/2292, a $200 and $199 decrease from the previous period respectively. For Hapag - Lloyd's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam during the same period, the total quote for 20GP was $1185, a $50 decrease from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1935, a $100 decrease from the previous period [10]. 3.8 Global Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: European Route was 1031.8 points, down 14.7 points (- 1.40%) from the previous value [11]. - SCFIS: US West Route was 862.48 points, down 14.34 points (- 1.64%) from the previous value [11]. - SCFI: European Route was $1068/TEU, up $97 (9.99%) from the previous value [11]. - SCFI: US West Route was $1468/FEU, up $8 (0.55%) from the previous value [11]. - XSI: European Route was $1603/FEU, unchanged from the previous value [11]. - XSI: US West Route was $1478/FEU, down $5 (- 0.3%) from the previous value [11]. - FBX Comprehensive Freight Rate Index was $1540/FEU, unchanged from the previous value [11]. 3.9 Global Major Port Waiting Times - Hong Kong Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 0.832 days, a decrease of 0.207 days from the previous day, compared with 0.948 days in the same period last year [18]. - Shanghai Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 0.763 days, a decrease of 0.517 days from the previous day, compared with 1.246 days in the same period last year [18]. - Yantian Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.925 days, a decrease of 0.278 days from the previous day [18]. - Singapore Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.174 days, a decrease of 0.068 days from the previous day, compared with 0.515 days in the same period last year [18]. - Jakarta Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.414 days, an increase of 0.285 days from the previous day, compared with 1.206 days in the same period last year [18]. - Long Beach Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.892 days, a decrease of 0.007 days from the previous day, compared with 1.798 days in the same period last year [18]. - Savannah Port: On October 12, 2025, the waiting time was 1.355 days, an increase of 0.833 days from the previous day, compared with 1.864 days in the same period last year [18]. 3.10 Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorages - For 8000 + container ships, on October 12, 2025, the speed was about 15.618 knots, a decrease of 0.005 knots from the previous day, compared with 15.845 knots in the same period last year [26]. - For 3000 + container ships, on October 12, 2025, the speed was about 14.882 knots, a decrease of 0.037 knots from the previous day, compared with 15.081 knots in the same period last year [26]. - For 1000 + container ships, on October 12, 2025, the speed was about 13.352 knots, an increase of 0.116 knots from the previous day, compared with 13.538 knots in the same period last year [26]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage on October 12, 2025, was 11, an increase of 1 from the previous day, compared with 6 in the same period last year [26].