现货价格上涨，盘面价格走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the log futures will run strongly [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly. The supply situation has a slightly negative impact, while demand and inventory factors have a positive impact. The valuation is considered neutral [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships), showing a slightly negative impact [4] - Demand: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters), indicating a positive impact [4] - Inventory: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters), having a positive impact [4] - Valuation: The current log futures delivery cost is between 830 - 840 yuan/m³, with a neutral valuation [4] - Investment View: The fundamentals are stable, and the log futures are expected to run strongly [4] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: Last week, the log futures ran strongly. Due to the increase in spot prices and strong fundamentals, there was a slight increase. Currently, the delivery logic is not being traded, and with firm spot prices and inventory not reaching the inflection point, it is expected to continue running strongly. As of October 10, 2025, the total log futures contract open interest was 19,649 lots, a 1.8% decrease from last week. The open interest of the main contract 2511 was 9,354 lots, a 24% decrease from last week [7][12] - Spot Market: As of October 10, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 750/790/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [17] 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. The import volume from New Zealand was 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. The radiata pine import volume was 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [22] - Expected Shipment from New Zealand: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% (100,000 cubic meters). The number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% (2 ships) [25] - Inventory: As of September 26, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.86 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05% (60,000 cubic meters). The radiata pine inventory was 2.35 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67% (40,000 cubic meters). The North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00% (10,000 cubic meters). The spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% (10,000 cubic meters). As of September 26, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.774 million cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 847,893 cubic meters, an increase of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period [32] - Outbound Volume: As of September 26, the average daily log outbound volume of 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 9.70% (5,800 cubic meters). Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 12.42% (3,800 cubic meters). The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,300 cubic meters from the previous period [35] - Wooden Square: As of October 10, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was also 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [38]