有色金属周报：宏观因素影响，锌价或有承压-20251013

Report Title - Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Zinc [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Author: Qi Yurong [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The current domestic zinc market has no substantial improvement in demand, while the supply remains loose. The fundamental situation maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - sentiment disturbances, zinc prices may face pressure. Considering the continuous inventory reduction of LME zinc and the deepening of the back structure, the downward space of SHFE zinc may be limited under the boost of the external market. The operating range is expected to be between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Movement: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 2.16% to 22,230 yuan/ton, SHFE zinc main contract closing price rose 2.04% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.95% to 2,984.5 US dollars/ton [11]. - Basis and Spread: The report presents historical data on basis, LME zinc spread (0 - 3), trading - to - holding ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange - rate impact), as well as various spot spreads and inter - month spreads [13][15]. 2. Raw Material and Refining 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Inventory: As of October 10, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 339,300 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [20]. - Profit: As of October 9, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,006 yuan/metal ton. In August, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 30.60% [27]. - TC: Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC continued to rise. The CZSPT small group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [3][20]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Profit: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of October 9, the production profit was - 436 yuan/ton [38]. - Production: In September, the domestic refined zinc output was 600,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [38]. - Import: The import profit window was closed. As of October 10, the import profit of refined zinc was - 3,967.74 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 235,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,500 tons [41]. 3. Downstream Consumption - Galvanizing - Operating Rate: The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.83 percentage points to 46.83%. Affected by the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the operating rate declined, and terminal demand was still below expectations [49]. - Inventory: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory increased due to the arrival of point - priced goods during the holidays, while finished - product inventory decreased as some enterprises still shipped goods despite the decline in operating rate [52]. 4. Downstream Consumption - Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - Price: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys increased by 2.09% and 2.04% respectively [59]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy decreased by 0.35 percentage points to 46.51%. Some enterprises were still on holiday, and terminal orders had no substantial improvement [62]. - Inventory: Raw material inventory increased due to the arrival of long - term orders, and finished - product inventory decreased as some downstream enterprises restocked after the festival [65]. 5. Downstream Consumption - Zinc Oxide - Price: The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) increased by 1.9% to 21,400 yuan/ton [72]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.24 percentage points to 56.08%. Some large enterprises were on holiday, but some downstream enterprises restocked after the festival [75]. - Inventory: Raw material inventory decreased as some enterprises on holiday converted raw materials into finished products, and finished - product inventory increased slightly [78]. 6. Inventory - Social Inventory: As of October 9, the three - place inventory of SMM zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, an increase in inventory. The inventory in the bonded area was 8,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [86]. - Exchange Inventory: As of October 10, the SHFE inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase, and the LME inventory was 37,950 tons, a continuous decrease [89]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance table from April 2024 to July 2025, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of each month [95].