生猪、玉米大跌

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows a mixed performance. Pig and corn prices are in a significant downward trend, while palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. Other products such as eggs, soybean meal, and others also have their own market characteristics and trends, with different influencing factors and corresponding trading strategies [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices continue to drop to new lows due to high supply pressure from active slaughter by farmers and a post - holiday decline in consumption. Corn prices also fall significantly because of the concentrated listing of new corn. Palm oil prices adjust downward, but the decline is limited, and it may show a high - level oscillation in the future [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Pig - Focus: The main 2511 contract of pigs continues to fall, hitting a new low. - Reasons: Farmers actively slaughter pigs, leading to a concentrated release of supply pressure. After the holiday, consumption declines, and there are sufficient meat substitutes, which restricts pig prices. - Technical analysis: The contract price is below the moving average system, and the MACD green column expands significantly. - Strategy: Continue to short - sell. Support is at 11100, and resistance is at 11300 [2][5]. (2) Corn - Focus: The main 2511 contract of corn continues to fall to a 10 - month low. - Reasons: The new corn harvest is gradually realized, and the concentrated listing increases supply pressure. - Technical analysis: The contract price is below the moving average system, and the MACD green column expands. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position. Support is at 2080, and resistance is at 2100 [4]. (3) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2601 contract of palm oil oscillates downward. - Reasons: The MPOB October report is bearish, and crude oil prices fall. However, the export of Malaysian palm oil remains strong, and the approaching seasonal production reduction limits the decline. - Technical analysis: The contract price breaks below the 40 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and conduct short - term trading. Support is at 9282, and resistance is at 9400 [7]. (4) Eggs - Focus: The main 2511 contract of eggs first declines and then rises, reducing the decline. - Reasons: The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and post - holiday demand drops, resulting in an increase in inventory. - Technical analysis: The contract price is far below the moving average, and the MACD green column expands after a death cross. - Strategy: Continue to short - sell. Support is at 2770, and resistance is at 2850 [10]. (5) Soybean Meal - Focus: The main 2601 contract of soybean meal first rises and then falls, with a narrow - range oscillation. - Reasons: Sino - US economic and trade relations are tense, but the short - term supply of imported soybeans is abundant. - Technical analysis: The contract forms a doji with a long upper shadow, and the MACD green column continues. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position. Support is at 2910, and resistance is at 2945 [11][13]. (6) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2601 contract of soybean oil oscillates downward. - Reasons: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the high - level oil mill crushing increases soybean oil supply. - Technical analysis: The contract price retraces the short - term moving average. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading. Support is at 8238, and resistance is at 8360 [14][19]. (7) Cotton - Focus: The main 2601 contract of cotton continues to oscillate at a low level. - Reasons: The new cotton harvest in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the demand season is not as expected. - Technical analysis: The contract rebounds slightly, and the MACD green column shrinks. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading. Support is at 13200, and resistance is at 13400 [18]. (8) Apples - Focus: The main 2601 contract of apples adjusts at a high level. - Reasons: Apple picking in some areas is affected, and the market supply is not large. - Technical analysis: The contract price is above the moving average system, and the MACD red column continues. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position. Support is at 8623, and resistance is at 8800 [20]. (9) Red Dates - Focus: The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates in a narrow range. - Reasons: New red dates are about to be harvested, and the market is affected by the harvest rhythm. - Technical analysis: The contract is in a rebound rhythm. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position. Support is at 10995, and resistance is at 11250 [23]. (10) Sugar - Focus: The main 2601 contract of sugar oscillates downward. - Reasons: Domestic sugar mills start production, and imported sugar supply remains high. - Technical analysis: The contract price breaks below the moving average system. - Strategy: Close long positions and establish a small - position short position. Support is at 5424, and resistance is at 5482 [24][26].