LIANCHU SECURITIES·2025-10-13 12:06Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Positive" for the gold market [5]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of US-China trade tensions has led to increased market risk aversion, driving gold prices to new historical highs, with spot gold reaching over $4060 per ounce on October 13 [3]. - The impact of the current round of US-China trade friction is expected to be limited, as both economies have developed a basic understanding of each other's economic resilience, and upcoming high-level negotiations may lead to a consensus [4]. - The gold market is unlikely to replicate the bull market seen during the previous US-China tariff conflict, as the likelihood of tariffs being implemented is low, with only a 16.5% chance according to Polymarket data [4][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that the US stock indices fell significantly due to the trade tensions, with the Dow Jones down 1.9%, S&P 500 down 2.71%, and Nasdaq down 3.56% on the announcement day [3]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term, supported by strong buying interest as the market digests the impact of trade tensions [5]. Economic Indicators - The US government is facing a shutdown crisis, which raises concerns about the stability of the US dollar and sovereign debt, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into gold [5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with a 95.7% probability, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and support its price [7][14]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in gold-related companies, specifically mentioning Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), and Shandong Gold Mining (600547.SH) as potential targets [7].