Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term adjustments. Alumina prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile bottom - grinding market. Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strengthen in the medium - term. Nickel prices are expected to have increased volatility and a lower oscillation center. Stainless steel prices are expected to weaken. Tin prices will be in a short - term high - level oscillation. Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon prices may have a limited short - term callback. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to reduce inventory and support the price [6][14][20][46][53][60][64][71][76] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review: On October 13, the Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,120 yuan/ton, down 2.06%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced positions by 12,125 lots to 566,100 lots. The spot market trading improved with price drops, and the premium in Shanghai rose [2] - Important Information: As of October 13, the national copper inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 17.2 million tons. In September, China imported 2.587 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and the cumulative import from January to September was 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September was 521,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [3][4] - Logic Analysis: Trump's tariff remarks and supply - side problems have affected copper prices. Mine supply tension has intensified, and consumption shows "not prosperous in the peak season", but there may be an increase in demand after price adjustments [6] - Trading Strategy: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline. Keep options on hold [7][8][9] Alumina - Market Review: On October 13, the Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 57 yuan to 2,820 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions declined [10] - Related Information: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang purchased 10,000 tons of alumina on October 13. As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 98.55 million tons in operation. In September, the actual production of alumina was 8.06 million tons, the net export was about 80,000 tons, and the demand was 7.552 million tons [11][12] - Logic Analysis: Affected by market sentiment, alumina prices fell. Although the static surplus has been absorbed, the surplus trend remains. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [14] - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading shows a weak and volatile trend. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [15][16] Aluminum - Market Review: On October 13, the Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 205 yuan to 20,885 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [17] - Related Information: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. In September, the national electrolytic aluminum weighted average full - cost was 15,977 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4,798 yuan/ton. On October 13, the national aluminum ingot spot inventory was 642,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons [17] - Trading Logic: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the medium - term upward trend remains. The market may have large - amplitude fluctuations [20] - Trading Strategy: Be on the sidelines in the short - term for single - side trading, and the medium - term trend is upward. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [21][22][23] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: On October 13, the Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 20,335 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [25] - Related Information: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. On October 13, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi decreased by 703 tons, and the casting aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased by 2,503 tons [25][26] - Trading Logic: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in prices. Before the implementation of tariffs is clear, the negative impact of macro - sentiment on aluminum products is significant. The price will be weak, and scrap aluminum prices may support the spot price [27] - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to tariff policy developments for single - side trading. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [28][29][31] Zinc - Market Review: On October 13, Shanghai Zinc 2511 dropped 0.58% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced positions by 2,771 lots to 212,600 lots. The spot market trading was light [32] - Related Information: As of October 13, the national zinc ingot inventory was 163,100 tons, an increase of 21,700 tons from September 29 [33] - Logic Analysis: In October, domestic zinc smelters increased production, and consumption did not improve significantly. The domestic price was under pressure, while the LME price was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may continue [34] - Trading Strategy: Close profitable short positions and wait for the export window to open to short again. Keep arbitrage on hold and close out the sold out - of - the - money call options [35][37] Lead - Market Review: On October 13, Shanghai Lead 2511 dropped 0.18% to 17,095 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased positions by 5,004 lots to 82,700 lots. Part of the downstream replenished inventory, and the spot market had different purchasing attitudes [36] - Related Information: As of October 13, the national lead ingot social inventory was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from September 29. The electric bicycle trade - in policy in Changsha and Shaoyang will be suspended on October 20 [39] - Logic Analysis: From September to mid - October, domestic lead production was relatively low. The inventory decreased during the National Day. The supply is weaker than demand currently, but the supply may increase in the second half of October, and the price may fall after rising [40] - Trading Strategy: The price may rise in the short - term but fall after rising. Keep arbitrage on hold and sell out - of - the - money call options [41] Nickel - Market Review: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 2,080 yuan to 121,410 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,785 lots. Spot premiums changed [43] - Related Information: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and daily price limit for nickel futures on October 14. Some Indonesian mining companies resumed production. Goldman Sachs predicted that nickel prices would drop by 6% by December 2026 [44][46] - Logic Analysis: Due to the lack of profit - taking and Trump's remarks, the decline was relatively mild. The "de - globalization" trend and the surplus pattern will lead to increased volatility and a lower center of oscillation [46] - Trading Strategy: Short a small amount of the main contract. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - Market Review: On October 13, the main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 205 yuan to 12,655 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 28,538 lots. The spot price range was given [51] - Important Information: Indonesia won the stainless - steel anti - dumping lawsuit against the EU, which is expected to boost exports. The national stainless - steel social inventory increased during the holiday [51][53] - Logic Analysis: The escalation of the Sino - US trade war affected external demand, and the inventory increased. The price was under pressure, and the market was waiting to see the inventory digestion this week [53] - Trading Strategy: The price will weaken. Keep arbitrage on hold [54][55] Tin - Market Review: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 282,110 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The spot price dropped, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [57] - Related Information: The US postponed the release of CPI data. As of October 10, the national tin ingot inventory decreased by 568 tons compared with September 26 [58][59] - Logic Analysis: Trump's tariff remarks led to a price drop. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption recovery [60] - Trading Strategy: The price will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Keep options on hold [61][62] Industrial Silicon - Important Information: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production capacity in Xinjiang decreased, and the production capacity in the east increased. The southwest may reduce production in November [63][64] - Logic Analysis: The production decreased in Xinjiang and increased in the east. The southwest will reduce production in November. The demand is strong in the short - term, and the price may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term [64] - Strategy Suggestion: Hold long positions. There is no arbitrage and option strategy currently [67][68] Polysilicon - Important Information: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production increased in October, and the silicon wafer production decreased [70][71] - Logic Analysis: The supply increased and the demand decreased in October. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November is the core driver of the price callback. The rumored state - purchase may limit the callback space [71] - Strategy Suggestion: Try to go long near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Hold the reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts. Buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [72] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: On October 13, the Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 780 yuan to 72,500 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,306 lots. The spot price dropped [74] - Important Information: A lithium project in Jiangxi had major changes. In September, the sales of new - energy vehicles and the production of ternary materials increased [76] - Logic Analysis: The supply growth rate is lower than the demand in October, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, supporting the price. Consider closing short positions and going long if the price falls below 70,000 yuan [76] - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds and close short positions if the price falls below 70,000 yuan. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [77][78][79]
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251013
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-13 12:05