黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251013

Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: October 13 - 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7] - Trend logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward driven by factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the US government shutdown, continuous central - bank gold purchases, and investment fund inflows. The overall operation logic is a triple - drive pattern of "macro - easing expectation as the foundation, risk - aversion sentiment as the catalyst, and fund inflow as the boost" [7] - Short - term risk: After the rapid price increase, the SPDR holdings decreased by 1.14 tons on October 9, and the speculative sentiment index dropped from 779.55 to 607.38. There is a need to be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking positions [7] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The gold contract 2512 faced pressure to take profits at high levels, with the lower support level at 845 - 850. It was recommended to wait and see before the holiday [10] - This week's strategy: The gold contract 2512 needs to be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking positions, with the lower support level at 898 - 903. It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [31] - Trend logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "stabilizing at a low level - jumping up after the holiday - falling from a high level". The core drivers were the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, tight supply in the spot market, and the resonance of industrial and investment demands. In the future, it is expected to remain strong. In the fourth quarter, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend under the background of loose monetary policy, an expanding supply - demand gap, and continuous geopolitical risks, but short - term fluctuations caused by profit - taking at high levels and the easing of geopolitical situations need to be watched out for [31] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the silver contract 2512 would operate strongly, with the lower support range at 10400 - 10500. It was recommended to wait and see before the holiday [34] - This week's strategy: It is expected that silver will mainly fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10700 - 11000 [35] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]