中美博弈或升温,关注避险需求与战略小金属
East Money Securities·2025-10-13 12:30

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., which may elevate demand for safe-haven assets like gold and strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten [5][9]. - The copper market is experiencing supply disruptions, with prices trending upward due to tight supply conditions [5]. - Aluminum demand is expected to continue, with potential opportunities for investment following market corrections [5]. - The strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten is emphasized due to recent export controls and geopolitical developments [5][9]. Summary by Sections Copper Sector - Supply disruptions are ongoing, with LME copper prices at $10,735 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.9% [5]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is negative, indicating tight supply [5]. - Companies with rich copper reserves are recommended for investment [9]. Aluminum Sector - LME aluminum prices reached $2,800 per ton, up 3.6% week-on-week [5]. - The operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain stable [5]. - Investment opportunities are suggested for companies in the aluminum sector following market corrections [9]. Gold Sector - Gold prices are rising, with SHFE gold at 901.6 RMB per gram, up 3.1% week-on-week [5]. - The report suggests that geopolitical tensions may enhance gold's strategic position as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Investment in gold-related companies is recommended due to their undervalued resource potential [9]. Rare Metals Sector - Rare earth prices remain stable, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 683,000 RMB per ton [5]. - Recent export controls on rare earths have heightened their strategic importance amid U.S.-China tensions [5][9]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies involved in rare earth production [9]. Steel Sector - Steel prices are stable, with SHFE rebar at 3,103 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.0% [6]. - The report notes frequent disruptions in iron ore supply negotiations, which may impact future prices [6]. - Companies with high self-sufficiency in iron ore are recommended for investment [9].