9月外贸数据解读：贸易摩擦再起，如何影响出口？

Export Performance - In September, China's export year-on-year growth rate recorded 8.3%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, but the two-year average growth rate has declined[4] - Exports to emerging markets such as Latin America and Africa improved significantly, while direct exports to the U.S. rebounded[4] - Consumer electronics and general machinery saw notable increases in export volumes[4] Import Performance - China's import year-on-year growth rate in September was 7.4%, up 6.1 percentage points from August, significantly higher than the average of the past five years[12] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by rising demand for production raw materials and energy, with notable recovery in imports from resource countries and the EU[12] - Among major trading partners, imports from the EU rose by 9.5%, while imports from the U.S. decreased by 16.1%[12] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in September was $90.45 billion, a slight contraction from the previous month, but net exports continue to support the economy[16] - The outlook for exports in the fourth quarter is stable but expected to decline slightly due to elevated export bases and a weakening U.S. economy[16] Sector Insights - Significant improvements were noted in mobile phones and general machinery exports, with mobile phone exports increasing by over 15 percentage points year-on-year[9] - In the transportation sector, shipbuilding saw a growth rate of 43%, while automotive exports declined by 10.8%[9] Risks - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic economic recovery, unexpected declines in demand from developed countries, and changes in import-export policies[18][20]