中美经贸冲击下后市展望

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The bull market in gold has been strengthened in September, and it is still worth over - allocating. Gold ETFs and gold stocks have room for further growth [30]. - Short - term fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade relations impact asset prices other than gold. The process of new and old energy conversion continues, driving the A - share bull market. Domestically, the stock market has medium - to - long - term potential, and resource - based varieties like non - ferrous metals such as copper are recommended for over - allocation, while crude oil is for under - allocation [30]. - The domestic real estate economy is in the past. The black market will maintain weak performance, and iron ore can be short - sold at 800 yuan/ton and above [30]. - Since the first Sino - US trade war in 2018, Sino - US trade relations have less impact on the supply and demand of most varieties. However, in soybean imports, the final development of Sino - US trade needs attention as it may potentially boost soybean meal prices next year, increasing breeding costs and accelerating capacity reduction in the pig industry [30]. - Due to Trump's behavior style, commodity volatility may suddenly increase at certain stages, and options are a good hedging tool [30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Risk and Macro - environment - Geopolitical situations are advancing steadily but without a clear breakthrough. Sino - US economic and trade issues are fluctuating, with recent signs of violating negotiation results. The Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is neutrally cautious, and short - term political turmoil in the international arena has led to a phased rebound in the US dollar index and a marginal convergence of US dollar liquidity [7]. Scenario Deduction - Benchmark Scenario: Constrained by domestic financial conditions or physical supply - chain pressures in the US, Trump may turn dovish, and negotiations will move towards consensus, presenting trading opportunities after a pulse - like market shock [12]. - Risk Scenario: The US has reached a phased framework agreement with its allies, and its financial conditions are better than during the April counter - tariff period. The safe - haven property of US Treasuries has recovered. Trump may consider further pressure, and if negotiations are blocked, market safe - haven trading will increase sustainably [12]. - Short - term Tracking: As Trump has not denied the meeting between the two leaders at APEC and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has stated that it is a restriction rather than a ban on exports, markets such as Bitcoin and US stocks are performing actively. At the beginning of this week, the market is pricing in the benchmark scenario, i.e., the TACO trading model [12]. Asset - related Analysis - Gold: The two drivers of the gold bull market are safe - haven demand and loose monetary policy. In September, these two drivers were strengthened, and gold is still worth over - allocating [15][30]. - Stock Market: The new and old energy conversion driven by AI is the main driver of the current A - share bull market. The stock market has medium - to - long - term potential, and copper and other non - ferrous metals are recommended for over - allocation [15][30]. - Black Market: The real estate economy is over, and the long - term policy is to support without over - stimulating. In the future, steel - making capacity reduction is a major trend. The carbon element adjustment is in place, and with anti - involution, future profit - sharing in the steel industry may mainly rely on the decline of iron element prices. The black market will maintain weak performance, and iron ore can be short - sold at 800 yuan/ton and above [17][30]. - Crude Oil: The long - term trend of crude oil is bearish, but geopolitical disturbances to supply remain. With the approaching expiration of the 24% counter - tariff exemption on November 29 and the US government shutdown on October 1, market safe - haven sentiment has rapidly increased. In the most extreme scenario, the lows of Brent and WTI are expected to be around $57/barrel and $52/barrel respectively. The bearish trend in the crude oil market has not ended. The average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to drop from $67/barrel in the third quarter to $62/barrel, and the strategy is to short on rallies [18][19]. Agricultural Products - related Analysis - Soybean: - US Soybeans: As of September 18, 2025, the cumulative sales of US new - crop soybeans for the 25/26 season were 11 million tons, accounting for 24% of the export sales task, compared with 35% in the same period last year. Due to trade uncertainties, China has shifted its soybean procurement to South America and has not purchased US soybeans. As China's procurement volume is large, other countries cannot match its market scale, so US soybean exports face challenges, and prices are expected to be pressured by weak demand [25]. - Chinese Imported Soybeans: Even if China does not purchase US soybeans, the supply of South American old - crop soybeans and China's large existing inventory can buffer. Domestic soybean inventories will gradually decrease, and the soybean supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of a supply gap in the Chinese soybean supply chain can be easily mitigated. The soybean supply situation in the second quarter of next year will depend on the situation of South American new - crop soybeans [25]. - Pig: In addition to regulatory policies, due to continuous price declines, current breeding enterprise profits are under pressure. With the continuous implementation of policies and market behavior in the industry, the supply - side pressure may be alleviated in the future [28].