政府债周报（10、12）：下周新增债披露发行154亿-20251013

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoint The report mainly focuses on the issuance of local government bonds, including the actual and forecasted issuance of local bonds, the progress of new bond issuance, the net supply of refinancing bonds, and the issuance details of special bonds. It also analyzes the investment and trading aspects of local bonds, such as the primary - secondary spread and the regional secondary spread [2][6][7]. Summary by Directory Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure: From September 29 to October 12, local bonds were issued with a total of 825.28 billion yuan, including 258.89 billion yuan of new bonds (99.20 billion yuan of new general bonds and 159.69 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 566.38 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (454.33 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 112.05 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds). From October 13 to October 19, the forecasted issuance of local bonds is 213.46 billion yuan, including 153.65 billion yuan of new bonds (0.00 billion yuan of new general bonds and 153.65 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 59.81 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (24.96 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 34.86 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [2][6][7]. - Comparison between Planned and Actual Issuance: There are differences between the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions, which are presented in relevant figures and tables [17][21]. Local Bond Net Supply - New Bond Issuance Progress: As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 83.53%, and that of new special bonds is 84.10% [31]. - Refinancing Bond Net Supply: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of October 12 is presented in a figure, with the statistical scope including both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [32][33]. Special Bond Issuance Details - Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics: As of October 12, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds have a total disclosed amount of 19958.85 billion yuan, with no new disclosure this week. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1290.00 billion yuan), and Guizhou (1271.32 billion yuan). The statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [8]. - Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics: As of October 12, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 12029.16 billion yuan, and since 2023, it is 23907.80 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (2340.35 billion yuan), Xinjiang (1311.70 billion yuan), and Hubei (1287.69 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (1189.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1027.48 billion yuan), and Yunnan (729.97 billion yuan). The statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [8]. Local Bond Investment and Trading - Primary - Secondary Spread: The primary and secondary spreads of local bonds are presented in figures, showing the spreads for different maturities and the changes over time [45]. - Regional Secondary Spread: The regional secondary spreads of local bonds for different regions from July 11, 2025, to October 10, 2025, are presented in a table [46]. - New Special Bond Investment Direction: The investment direction of new special bonds is presented in a figure, with the latest month's statistics only considering the issued new bonds [48].