Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish inclination with poor market operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency and low market maneuverability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias and weak market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish trend and limited market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil inventory has increased by 4.3% since the second half of the year, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline. In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas [3] - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected. The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations. The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, the global oil inventory has increased by 4.3%, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year [2] - In the fourth quarter, the bearish pressure from OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of oil demand continues. New risk aversion sentiment has emerged due to the US government shutdown and the resurgence of the Sino-US trade war. Supply may be tightened temporarily due to the attacks on Russian energy facilities and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran. The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is a new attempt at global geopolitical reconciliation [2] - The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline due to factors such as the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and OPEC+ production increase [3] - In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply (including the unstable supply from the RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery) and loose domestic quotas [3] Asphalt - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected [3] - In late September, the shipment volume of 54 national asphalt sample enterprises returned to a year-on-year growth of 8%. The latest data shows that the factory inventory has increased month-on-month, the social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the overall inventory level has slightly increased month-on-month [3] - The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations [3] - The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3]
能源日报-20251013
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-10-13 13:51