黑色金属每日早盘观察-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel prices are under slight pressure due to the US tariff increase but are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further [7][8]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term prices may weaken with the macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is advisable to lightly build long positions on dips [9][12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be weak at high levels. The market is affected by Sino - US tariffs, with increased supply and decreased demand [13][15]. - For ferroalloys, their valuations are not high. Short positions can be reduced on macro - impact dips [15][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Important Information: China's export control is not a ban, and in September 2025, 1523 projects started nationwide with a total investment of about 1305.545 billion yuan [8]. - Logic Analysis: The black - metal sector was weak last Friday night. Some steel mills cut production last week, and there was significant inventory accumulation during the holiday. Steel prices are under pressure due to inventory build - up and weak demand. Short - term prices may be affected by tariff news but are expected to oscillate at the bottom [8]. - Strategy Suggestions: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading; recommend going long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures on dips; suggest waiting and seeing for options [9]. Coking Coal and Coke - Important Information: Last week, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, and the average profit per ton of coke was 9 yuan. There are different prices for coke and coking coal warehouse receipts [10][11]. - Logic Analysis: The market may not react strongly to the proposed US tariff increase. In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water production. Supply is policy - supported. Short - term prices may weaken with the macro - market but the impact is limited [12]. - Strategy Suggestions: Lightly build long positions on dips for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Iron Ore - Related Information: China will impose a special port fee on US - related ships from October 14. The added - value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises increased by 7.6% in the first eight months of 2025, and the sales of top 100 real - estate enterprises rebounded in September [13]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US tariffs increase market uncertainty. Global iron - ore shipments increased in the third quarter, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in China. Ore prices are expected to be weak at high levels [13][15]. - Strategy Suggestions: Hedge at high spot prices for single - side trading; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage; use circuit - breaker put - option strategies [15]. Ferroalloys - Important Information: There are different prices for manganese ore on October 10, and a factory in Inner Mongolia may add new production capacity at the end of October [16]. - Logic Analysis: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, and demand is slightly down. For silicomanganese, both supply and demand are decreasing, and the cost - side manganese - ore inventory is at a low level. Both have reasonable valuations, and short positions can be reduced on macro - impact dips [17]. - Strategy Suggestions: Reduce short positions on macro - impact dips for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options [17].