Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. High inventory and weak demand continue to suppress the market. Although the supply side has slightly contracted, it has failed to effectively reverse the situation of loose supply and demand. The market is expected to lack upward momentum, and the market will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [9][40]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies in the single - side trading, conducting an arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and shorting on soda ash, and considering a bear spread option combination [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 770,800 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons or 0.85% from the previous week. Light soda ash production was 342,100 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 428,700 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons [7][10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.41%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 91.09% (unchanged), the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points, and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 90.16%, a decrease of 1.58 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons or 3.74% from before the holiday (September 29). Light soda ash inventory was 739,100 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 920,700 tons, an increase of 17,500 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 9, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 710,900 tons, a decrease of 14.25% from the previous week. The overall shipment rate was 92.23%, a decrease of 14.41 percentage points [18]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 9, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of raw salt and coke was stable, and the soda ash price remained stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated at a low level [21]. - As of September 25, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash was - 77.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous week. The cost increased, while the soda ash price was stable, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process fluctuated downward [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Production Increased Month - on - Month - As of October 9, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 3rd. The weekly production of national float glass was 1.1289 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98% [28]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreased - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.469 million weight boxes or 5.85% from the previous week, and a year - on - year increase of 6.76%. The inventory days were 26.7 days, an increase of 1.3 days from the previous period [29]. 3. Spot Market Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the report, only the names of relevant price trend charts are provided, including domestic light soda ash price trend, domestic heavy soda ash price trend, and soda ash basis trend [34][36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side contracted slightly, but weak demand was the core contradiction. After the National Day holiday, enterprise inventory increased significantly, especially the inventory pressure of light soda ash increased, indicating weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm. - The demand side was weak, with downstream enterprises mainly restocking as needed. New orders were average, resulting in a significant decline in the shipment volume and shipment rate of soda ash enterprises this week. The industry's profit situation was still poor, and enterprises lacked the motivation to raise prices. - In the short term, high inventory and weak demand will continue to suppress the market. The market is expected to lack upward momentum and will continue to show a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and inventory reduction [40].
纯碱周报：高库存与弱需求持续压制市场-20251013
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-10-13 02:25