Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The post - holiday fundamental driving force of rubber is relatively limited, and the market performance follows external macro - sentiment fluctuations. With the intensification of Sino - US game on the macro - level, the supply - side support weakens, terminal consumption is average, and natural rubber inventory continues to decline. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly in the short term [8][9][84]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2601 ranged from 15,150 to 15,480 yuan/ton, with an overall slight increase. As of the close on October 10, 2025, it closed at 15,315 yuan/ton, up 285 points or 1.9% for the week [14]. Spot Price - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from September 30; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheet (RSS3) was 19,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from September 30; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from September 30 [18]. - As of October 10, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,120 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars/ton from September 30 [21]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with September 30. As of October 10, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 665 yuan/ton, narrowing 65 yuan/ton from September 30 [25]. - As of October 10, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased significantly during the week [27]. Important Market Information - Geopolitical: On October 9, Hamas reached a cease - fire agreement; on October 5, eight foreign ministers welcomed Hamas' measures on the "20 - point plan" for a cease - fire in the Gaza Strip [28]. - US domestic politics: The Trump administration is using the government shutdown crisis to promote the second - round large - scale federal employee reduction plan, which may lead to a reduction of hundreds of thousands of federal employees by the end of this year. The Fed faces greater pressure to cut interest rates due to the delay in key employment and inflation data [28]. - Tariff policy: Starting from November 1, 2025, the US will impose a 25% tariff on all medium - and heavy - duty trucks imported from other countries and regions [28]. - Fed policy: The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many were cautious due to inflation concerns. New York Fed President Williams supported further rate cuts, while Fed Governor Barr advocated caution [29]. - Global economy: The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be about 3% in the medium term, lower than 3.7% before the COVID - 19 pandemic. By 2029, global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP [29]. - Global manufacturing: In September, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, running in the range of 49% - 50% for seven consecutive months. The average value in the third quarter was 49.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from the second quarter [30]. - Chinese economy: From January to August this year, the added value of small and medium - sized industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 7.6% year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points higher than that of large enterprises. In August, the SME export index was 51.9%, remaining in the expansion range for 17 consecutive months [31]. - Real estate: In September, the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises in China increased by 11.9% month - on - month. According to the CRIC Research Center, the sales operating amount of top 100 real estate enterprises in September was 252.78 billion yuan, up 22.1% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year [31]. - Automobile industry: In September, the estimated wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.5 million, up 22% year - on - year and 16% month - on - month. The retail sales of the passenger vehicle market were 2.239 million, up 6% year - on - year and 11% month - on - month. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.307 million, up 16% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month, with a retail penetration rate of 58.5% [32]. - Logistics industry: In September, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [32]. Supply - side Situation - Natural rubber production in major producing countries: As of August 31, 2025, the production in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia decreased slightly compared with the previous month, while that in India, Vietnam, and China increased slightly. The total production of major natural rubber producing countries in August 2025 was 987,000 tons, up 60,000 tons or 6.47% from the previous month, with a slightly lower growth rate [40]. - Synthetic rubber production in China: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 740,000 tons, up 7.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative production was 5.848 million tons, up 10.9% year - on - year [44][48]. - Import of new pneumatic rubber tires in China: As of August 31, 2025, the import volume was 9,300 tons, down 10.58% month - on - month [51]. Demand - side Situation - Tire enterprise开工率: As of October 9, 2025, the开工 rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 46.51%, down 27.07% from September 25; the开工 rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 43.96%, down 21.76% from September 25 [53]. - Automobile production and sales: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.815 million, up 13% year - on - year and 8.7% month - on - month; monthly sales were 2.857 million, up 16.4% year - on - year and 10.1% month - on - month [56][59]. - Heavy - truck sales: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales were 91,619, up 46.71% year - on - year and 7.93% month - on - month [65]. - Tire production: As of August 31, 2025, China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million, up 1.5% year - on - year [68]. - Tire export: As of August 31, 2025, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 63.01 million, down 5.46% month - on - month [74]. Inventory - side Situation - Futures inventory: As of October 10, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 144,390 tons, down 5,420 tons from September 30 [81]. - Social inventory: As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, down 15,000 tons or 1.4% month - on - month. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 661,000 tons, down 0.87%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 427,000 tons, down 2.2% month - on - month [81]. - Qingdao inventory: As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 456,500 tons, down 4,700 tons or 1.01% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 69,400 tons, remaining flat; the general - trade inventory was 387,100 tons, down 1.18% [81]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Currently, the global natural rubber producing areas are in the peak supply season. Recent weather disturbances in domestic and foreign main producing areas have provided some cost - side support, but as the weather impact weakens, there is a strong expectation of increased supply, and the supply support weakens. In August 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 520,800 tons, up 9.68% month - on - month and 5.39% year - on - year [82]. - Demand: During the National Day holiday, some tire enterprises had a 5 - 8 - day holiday. Last week, the tire enterprise开工率 decreased significantly compared with September 25. The all - steel tire inventory continued to rebound, and the semi - steel tire inventory decreased marginally. In August, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August this year, China's automobile production and sales exceeded 20 million for the first time. In August, China's heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. From January to August 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, up 5.1% year - on - year [82]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly compared with September 30; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline month - on - month [82]. Viewpoint and Operation Strategy - Viewpoint: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate weakly in the short term [85]. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see for the time being and focus on the inventory accumulation situation; for options, wait and see for the time being [86].
驱动有限关税冲击，盘面或将震荡偏弱
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-10-13 02:25