国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251013

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite declines, and valuation is under pressure [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak reality combined with weakening expectations may lead to a slight correction in steel prices [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is filled with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with wide fluctuations [2][9] - Coke and coking coal: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, with weak fluctuations [2][13] - Logs: Weak fluctuations [2][15] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental data: The closing price of the I 2601 futures contract was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The open interest was 476,191 lots, an increase of 16,626 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 924.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan; PB fines (61.5%) was 790.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 760.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; and Super Special fines (56.5%) remained unchanged at 716.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Benxi ore (66%) was 946.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan; and Laiwu ore (65%) was 864.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan [4] - Macro and industry news: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [4] - Trend strength: -1 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Fundamental data: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,103 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.52%; the HC2601 hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.37%. In terms of spot prices, rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Guangzhou. Hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton, while remaining unchanged in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [6] - Macro and industry news: In October 2025, the US announced additional 100% tariffs on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software. In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%, and imports were 500,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%. According to the weekly data from Steel Union on October 8, the output of rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot-rolled coil by 14,000 tons, and the total output of the five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; the total inventory of rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot-rolled coil by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [6][8] - Trend strength: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental data: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75-B in Inner Mongolia was 5,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5,680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 lump was 40.0 yuan/ton-degree, and the price of semi-coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton. The spot-futures price difference for ferrosilicon was -236 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; for silicomanganese, it was -80 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan [10] - Macro and industry news: On October 10, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in various regions decreased to varying degrees, and the prices of 6517 silicomanganese in the north and south also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 80,100 tons, in Qinzhou Port decreased by 118,600 tons, in Fangchenggang decreased by 2,000 tons, and the total inventory increased by 27,900 tons [10] - Trend strength: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental data: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,161 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.3%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,666.5 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Among spot coking coal prices, the prices of Linfen low-sulfur main coking coal, Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal self-pickup price, and Lvliang low-sulfur main coking coal remained unchanged. The price of Peak Downs coking coal converted to RMB decreased by 1,650 yuan to 0 yuan/ton. Among spot coke prices, the prices of Hebei quasi-primary dry quenched coke, Shanxi quasi-primary delivered price, and Rizhao Port quasi-primary price index remained unchanged [13] - Macro and industry news: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [14] - Trend strength: -1 for both coke and coking coal [14] Logs - Fundamental data: The closing prices of the 2511, 2601, and 2603 log futures contracts remained unchanged. The trading volume and open interest of each contract had different degrees of change. Among spot log prices, the prices of various types of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained mostly unchanged, with only a few showing slight increases [16] - Macro and industry news: China responded to the US threat of imposing additional tariffs on China, stating that if the US persists, China will take corresponding measures [18] - Trend strength: -1 [18]