格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20251013

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel sector is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of Sino - US trade relations, the steel market is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias in the short - term. It is recommended to take short - selling operations. The expected pressure level for rebar is 3230, and the support level is 3000. For hot - rolled coils, the pressure level is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, rebar and hot - rolled coils opened higher with a gap and closed with a negative line. They closed down during the night session [1] Important Information - The Chinese government's export control is not a ban on exports. For applications that meet the regulations, permission will be granted. If the US persists in its actions, China will take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that the approved loan amount for the national white - list projects has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, ensuring the construction and delivery of commercial housing projects. The second - hand housing market in 15 provincial - level administrative regions has a larger trading volume than the new - housing market [1] - After the National Development and Reform Commission announced that 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments will be used to supplement project capital, many regions have started to connect with these instruments to form physical work volume. Some regions have also deployed work to expand effective investment [1] - In September, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market reached 2.239 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. Among them, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market were 1.307 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 17% [1] Market Logic - Historical data shows that steel prices mostly declined after the National Day holiday in the past five years. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of steel is not prominent, and steel production may decline in the later period. In terms of structure, due to the influence of steel mills' production profits, molten iron has continuously flowed to high - profit varieties. The production of building materials from blast furnaces and electric furnaces has decreased, while the production of hot - rolled coils has continued to increase. Steel apparent demand has declined, and attention should be paid to the demand in October. Inventories have continued to accumulate. The intensification of Sino - US trade risks is a short - term negative factor for the market [1] Trading Strategy - Affected by Sino - US trade relations, it is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias in the short - term. Short - selling operations are recommended. The expected pressure level for rebar is 3230, and the support level is 3000. For hot - rolled coils, the pressure level is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [1]