黑色建材日报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's new tariff statement may impact the commodity market, but the overall macro - environment is gradually turning more accommodative. In the short term, the weak reality is hard to reverse, and the policy strength around the Fourth Plenary Session needs attention [2]. - For the black sector, instead of short - selling, finding callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. The macro factors will be the focus of medium - and long - term trading, and the black sector may gradually have the value of long - allocation around the Fourth Plenary Session [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3103 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.226%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 277,267 tons, a net increase of 1,531 tons. The position of the main contract was 1,926,153 lots, up 18,024 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3250 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3285 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract was 1,397,651 lots, up 23,065 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3320 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3350 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel is small, steel prices may decline with the overall weakening of the commodity market sentiment. The impact level of this tariff policy may be smaller compared to the market on April 7. Fundamentally, steel demand during the National Day holiday was significantly weaker than the same period last year. For rebar, terminal demand reached a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly; for hot - rolled coils, production decreased slightly, but the apparent demand decreased more significantly, and inventory increased prominently. The follow - up demand recovery needs attention [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) last Friday was 795.00 yuan/ton, up 0.57% (+4.50), with a position change of +16,626 lots to 476,200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 786,200 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.84 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.11% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: At the end of the third quarter, the shipping rush of mines ended. The latest overseas iron ore shipping volume remained stable at a high level year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. The shipping volume from Australia decreased slightly, that from Brazil was basically flat, and the shipping volume from non - mainstream countries decreased significantly. The near - end arrival volume increased month - on - month [5]. - Demand: The latest daily average pig iron output was 2415400 tons, down 2700 tons month - on - month. Pig iron production was stable, with both blast furnace restarts and overhauls, mainly short - term overhauls. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of steel during the holiday increased, and the post - holiday destocking situation needs attention. If the finished product situation weakens after the holiday, iron ore prices may adjust accordingly. The "Silver October" market after the restocking needs attention [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 10, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5760 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.66% at 5436 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 214 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - Manganese silicon: Its fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major contradiction. However, the port inventory of manganese ore has been at a low level recently, and the manganese ore price is relatively firm. If the black sector strengthens, pay attention to possible disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, it will follow the black sector [11]. - Ferrosilicon: Its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers and will also likely follow the black sector, with low trading cost - effectiveness [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) last Friday was 8685 yuan/ton, up 0.52% (+45). The weighted contract position increased by 7625 lots to 415,415 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract was 615 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 215 yuan/ton [13]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) last Friday was 48965 yuan/ton, down 3.55% (-1800). The weighted contract position increased by 12,710 lots to 246,722 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.55 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 3585 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: In the short term, the price is under downward pressure due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes. But in the future, as the southwest region enters the dry season, production will decrease, and the cost support will strengthen. The valuation of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers after the macro - risk is digested, the price may rise again [14]. - Polysilicon: Before the policy is actually implemented or new catalytic variables appear, the market may enter a fundamental correction stage. In the short term, the price is constrained by high inventory and weak demand. In the medium term, the capacity integration policy is not overly pessimistic, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November. The short - term price fluctuation is regarded as a technical correction, and the price has downward pressure with support at 47,000 - 48,000 yuan/ton [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The closing price of the glass main contract at 15:00 on Friday was 1218 yuan/ton, up 0.66% (+8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1230 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62,824,000 cases, up 3,469,000 cases (+5.84%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 48,221 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 94,116 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The closing price of the soda ash main contract at 15:00 on Friday was 1250 yuan/ton, down 0.40% (-5). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1170 yuan, up 5 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons. The inventory of heavy soda ash was 922,400 tons, down 83,700 tons; the inventory of light soda ash was 729,100 tons, down 20,400 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 41,312 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 82,741 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: Downstream procurement is active, some manufacturers are strongly willing to hold prices, and the overall spot price is rising. Regional inventory performance varies significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up policy, and the short - term view is bullish [19]. - Soda ash: The domestic soda ash market is trading steadily, with the prices of heavy and light soda ash remaining stable and fluctuating slightly. The supply side decreased slightly due to short - term shutdowns of individual devices. During the holiday, enterprise shipments slowed down, and inventory accumulated. The market is wait - and - see. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term [21].