工业硅、多晶硅日评：承压-20251013

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side still shows a certain increase, the improvement on the demand side is limited, the industrial silicon remains in an oversupply situation, and the silicon price will continue to be under pressure due to macro - sentiment disturbances. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 yuan/ton. [1] - For polysilicon, the supply - side disturbances are still fluctuating, the polysilicon price is consolidating at a high level. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is great pressure for the spot price to rise further, which may suppress the futures market. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.52% to 8,685 yuan/ton. [1] - The average prices of non - oxygenated 553 and oxygenated 553 in different regions (Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) remained unchanged. [1] Inventory and Production - On October 9, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 545,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with before the National Day. [1] - In September 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 420,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,100 tons (9.1%) and a year - on - year decrease of 33,300 tons (7.3%). From January to September 2025, the cumulative output was 3.0177 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In October, the total planned production is expected to increase by 8.5% month - on - month. [1] Supply and Demand - In October, the southwest production area will gradually enter the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will reduce or stop production. If northern silicon enterprises do not resume production on a large scale, the supply side will tighten. [1] - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may be an output increase in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday operating level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited. [1] Investment Strategy - Keep holding out - of - the - money put options. [1] Polysilicon Price Information - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re -投料, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, while the closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.55% to 48,965 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts, and some may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly. [1] - On the demand side, the market transactions during the National Day were light, with few new transactions. The downstream is resistant to high - price resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October. [1] Investment Strategy - Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, one can try to go long on dips with a light position. [1] Other Products - For silicon wafers, the prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm remained unchanged. [1] - For battery cells, the price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained unchanged. [1] - For components, the prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided and double - sided, 182mm and 210mm) remained unchanged. [1] - For organic silicon, the price of DMC remained unchanged at 11,050 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue increased 3.14% to 11,500 yuan/ton, and the price of silicone oil remained unchanged at 12,850 yuan/ton. [1]