国新国证期货早报-20251013

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On October 10, A-share market's three major indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.94% to 3897.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.70% to 13355.42 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 4.55% to 3113.26 points. The trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2515.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.6 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index pulled back on October 10, closing at 4616.83, down 92.65 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 10, the weighted coke index continued to rebound, closing at 1689.5, up 32.3 [1]. - The weighted coking coal index fluctuated in a range on October 10, closing at 1176.7 yuan, up 15.4 [2]. - The first round of coke price increase was fully implemented on the 1st, with a tamping increase of 50 - 55 and a top - loading increase of 70 - 75. The second round of price increase basically failed. During the holiday, transportation was smooth, coke enterprises had a slight inventory build - up, and their profits were near the break - even point, maintaining a normal production rhythm [2]. - Due to factors such as holidays and safety accidents, some coal mines reduced production during the National Day and are expected to gradually resume after the holiday. Mongolian coal resumed normal customs clearance on October 8. After the holiday, Mongolian coal is expected to see a significant increase [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected global supply surplus in the 2025/26 season led the market to be defensive. Affected by this, US sugar oscillated and declined on Friday. Due to a large short - term decline, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated and slightly closed lower at night [2]. - The sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is expected to increase by 3.3% year - on - year to 40.12 million tons, and sugar production is estimated to increase by 7.7% year - on - year to 3.05 million tons. Brazil exported 3.24583761 million tons of sugar in September, a 16% year - on - year decrease [2]. Rubber - Due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and a sharp decline in crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber oscillated and declined on the night of Friday. As of October 10, the natural rubber inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3729 tons to 180630 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5420 tons to 144390 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory decreased by 1310 tons to 45562 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 705 tons to 43129 tons [3]. Soybean Meal - On October 10, the CBOT soybean futures oscillated weakly, with the main November contract down 1.44% to 1007 cents per bushel. Favorable weather in the US Midwest promoted the harvest, and the concentrated listing of new soybeans and concerns about export demand hindered the rise of US soybean prices [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to be 7.12 million tons, much higher than 4.44 million tons in the same period last year. As of October 2, 9% of Brazil's soybean planting area has been completed, compared with 3% last week and 4% in the same period last year [4]. - On October 10, the soybean meal futures oscillated weakly, with the main M2601 contract closing at 2922 yuan per ton, down 0.58%. China's imported soybean arrivals are still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills has remained above 2.25 million tons for four consecutive weeks [4]. Live Hogs - On October 10, the live hog futures weakened, with the main LH2511 contract down 2.37% to 11320 yuan per ton. Currently, the production capacity of suitable - weight standard pigs is being released intensively, and the supply capacity has increased significantly. After the holiday, consumption declined, and it is difficult to support the pig price. However, after November, with the start of curing demand and policy support, the market is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the rebound height is restricted by the expected over - capacity [5]. Shanghai Copper - The sudden news of additional tariffs on imported goods on Friday triggered concerns about trade frictions. The global copper mine supply remains tight, and domestic smelters' production willingness has declined. However, the expected escalation of trade frictions and the uncertainty of downstream demand recovery after resumption of work will limit the rebound height [5]. Iron Ore - On October 10, the main Iron Ore 2601 contract oscillated and rose, with a 1.02% increase to 795 yuan. Recently, the iron ore shipment volume decreased month - on - month, the domestic arrivals increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is in an oscillating trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On October 10, the main Asphalt 2511 contract oscillated and declined, with a 1.42% decrease to 3328 yuan. This period's asphalt production and shipment volume both decreased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased. The asphalt price will oscillate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 13355 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 88 lots compared with the previous day. The price of machine - picked cotton is 6.02 - 6.25 yuan per kilogram [6]. Logs - On October 11, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 760 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually reducing inventory, with expectations for the peak season [8]. Steel - The October steel market is a game between expectations and reality. The industrial positive factors of "anti - involution" and "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" have been fully traded in the first round. The current trading logic of the black metal chain has switched to a double - drive of macro - industrial policies and fundamentals. High inventory and weak demand will limit the price increase space, but policy expectations and low valuations in the peak season provide bottom support [8]. Alumina - Recently, the operating capacity of alumina has changed little, and the production remains at a high level. The import has increased recently, and the supply surplus situation remains unchanged. The spot market trading is light, and the inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The alumina price is under downward pressure [9]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of alumina, the raw material, is still abundant, and its spot price is weakening. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. With the improvement of downstream demand expectations after the holiday and policy support, the inventory is decreasing. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and increasing demand [9].