浦银国际策略观点：新一轮贸易摩擦升级是否会中断港股行情？-20251013

Core Insights - The report discusses the recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, particularly focusing on issues such as antitrust, maritime logistics, port service fees, and rare earth export controls. A significant threat from the US to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese products is highlighted, which could lead to a situation similar to the trade standstill experienced in April-May of this year [2] - Despite the short-term uncertainties caused by the trade tensions, the report suggests that the overall medium-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, driven by improved market expectations, liquidity, and stabilizing earnings forecasts [2][2] - The report recommends investors to consider buying core assets in the Hong Kong stock market during dips, particularly in sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [1][2] Market Conditions - The report notes that market participants are now more familiar with the negotiation tactics of the US administration, which has led to a more measured response compared to the panic selling seen in April. This familiarity has resulted in a more stable market environment despite the trade tensions [2] - The liquidity situation has improved significantly due to the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which are expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market. There has been strong net inflow from foreign and southbound funds, and the IPO market remains robust [2] - Earnings expectations for major Chinese indices are stabilizing after previous downward adjustments, with projected earnings growth for major indices expected to reach double digits next year [2] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of timing and sector rotation in investment strategies, suggesting that AI and overseas expansion will be key investment themes for the coming years. Companies with strong AI attributes and competitive advantages are primarily listed in the Hong Kong market [2] - The report indicates that despite the uncertainties in the international economic environment, sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption are still experiencing revenue growth due to overseas expansion [2]