股指周报：贸易风云再起，预计避险情绪升温，但影响弱于4月-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market rose first and then fell. After the holiday, the capital enthusiasm recovered, but the high - level divergence continued. The growth styles such as the ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board declined, and the four major broad - based indexes closed slightly down. - The US announced a 100% new tariff on Chinese imported goods last Friday, which will transmit bearish sentiment to the domestic A - share market this week. High - position stocks and the ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board with front - running characteristics are expected to continue the downward trend, and small - cap styles such as the CSI 1000 need key defense. However, the direct impact of overseas sentiment transmission on the market is limited, and the indirect impact is more short - term and phased. In the long - term, market adjustments can be regarded as a new layout opportunity. [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Last Week's Stock Index Operation Situation 3.1.1 Trade Tensions Resurfaced, and Most Global Stock Indexes Fell - The four major broad - based indexes in the domestic stock index market closed slightly down last week. The weekly gains and losses of the four major stock indexes were: CSI 500 (- 0.19%) > SSE 50 (- 0.47%) > CSI 300 (- 0.51%) > CSI 1000 (- 0.54%). - Overseas, affected by the US government shutdown and the new 100% tariff on Chinese imports, the international risk - aversion sentiment generally increased last week. The VIX fear index rose 25% on Friday, and the three major US stock indexes generally fell. The Nasdaq Index dropped 3.56% on Friday and 2.53% for the week. [1][8] 3.1.2 Non - ferrous Metals and Coal Led the Gains, and the Trading Volume Rebounded Compared with Before the National Day - From the performance of the Shenwan primary industry classification, sectors were significantly differentiated last week. Non - ferrous metals (+ 4.44%) and coal (+ 4.41%) led the gains, while media (- 3.83%) and electronics (- 2.63%) lagged behind. The growth style adjusted, and the cycle and stable styles were relatively strong. - In terms of capital, the A - share trading volume rebounded last week, fluctuating between 2.5 - 2.6 trillion yuan during the week, and the capital entry willingness remained at a relatively strong historical level. [2][9] 3.1.3 The Basis of Stock Index Futures Changed Little, and the Option Volatility Fell Rapidly - In the futures market, the basis (spot - futures) of each stock index futures changed little last week. The far - month discounts of IC and IM slightly expanded compared with before the holiday, while IF and IH basically remained unchanged. The sentiment in the derivatives market was more cautious than that in the spot market. - In the options market, the implied volatility of stock index options fell last week. After the long - holiday effect ended, the average IV of the CSI 300 current - month contract reached the 15 - 16% level, which was at a relatively low historical level. [10] 3.2 Fundamental Elements and Outlook for the Future 3.2.1 The Central Bank Conducted a Net Withdrawal of 152.63 Billion Yuan in the Open Market Last Week - In terms of inter - bank liquidity, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 152.63 billion yuan in the open market last week, with open - market reverse repurchase operations of 113.7 billion yuan and a cumulative reverse repurchase maturity amount of 266.33 billion yuan. - In terms of inter - bank interest rates, interest rates at various tenors generally declined last week. The overnight Shibor decreased by 6.50bp, the one - week Shibor decreased by 0.20bp, the two - week Shibor decreased by 22.00bp, R001 decreased by 21.57bp, R007 decreased by 19.98bp, and R014 decreased by 18.49bp. [70] 3.2.2 The Tariff Shock Resurfaced, but the Impact is Expected to be Weaker than in April - The US announced a 100% new tariff on Chinese imported goods last Friday, which led to a spread of panic in the international market. For the A - share market, bearish sentiment is expected to spread this week. High - position stocks and the ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board are expected to continue to decline, and small - cap styles need key defense. However, the direct impact of overseas sentiment on the A - share market is limited. - Futures operation: If there are unclosed long - term trend orders, short positions can be opened on Monday for hedging or temporarily exit the market for observation. For speculators, if the market falls this week, there may be rebound opportunities near the 20 - day moving average and the position on September 4th, and intraday long positions can be used for short - term trading based on these two points. - Options operation: It is very likely that the volatility will increase this week, but the increase is expected to be smaller than that in early April. Short - term participation in buying far - month CSI 1000 put options is recommended, and exit the market in time if there is a profit during the week. For SSE 50 and CSI 300 options, it is recommended to wait for the volatility to rise before entering the double - selling strategy. [2][71] 3.3 Economic Data and Financial Event Forecast 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Data Release No specific data release information was provided in the report. 3.3.2 Key Financial Events - October 13 (to be determined): China's import and export volume in September. - October 13 (20:30): The number of new non - farm payrolls and the unemployment rate in the US in September. - October 15 (to be determined): Financial data such as new social financing and M2 in China in September. - October 15 (20:30): CPI and core CPI in the US in September. - October 16 (20:30): PPI and core PPI in the US in September. - October 18 (10:00): Real estate data (new construction, completion, and construction area of houses) in China in September. [102]