Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:22Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The rapeseed meal is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, while the rapeseed oil is expected to continue the destocking mode, and their future trends depend on Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,022 yuan/ton (down 39 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2,392 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 623.4 CAD/ton (down 8.3 CAD), and domestic rapeseed was 5,397 yuan/ton (up 129 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 438 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan), and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 77 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 303,612 lots (down 10,376 lots), and rapeseed meal was 363,923 lots (down 7,785 lots) [2] - Top 20 net long positions: Rapeseed oil was 15,516 lots (down 438 lots), and rapeseed meal was - 68,882 lots (down 5,622 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil was 8,147 sheets (up 90 sheets), and rapeseed meal was 9,089 sheets (down 110 sheets) [2] 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,150 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 10,243.75 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan), and the import cost of rapeseed was 7,439.98 yuan/ton (up 20.67 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 128 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal main contract basis was 68 yuan/ton [2] - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,540 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,260 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,930 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [2] - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1,610 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 890 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), and soybean - rapeseed meal was 470 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2] - Rapeseed imports were 24.66 million tons (up 7.06 million tons), and the import rapeseed disc crushing profit was 972 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan) [2] - Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 5 million tons (unchanged), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 3.73% (down 1.6%) [2] 4. Industry Situation - Imports: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons (up 1 million tons), and rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons (down 8.72 million tons) [2] - Inventories: Coastal rapeseed oil was 6 million tons (down 1.67 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal was 1.15 million tons (down 1.53 million tons), East China rapeseed oil was 50.9 million tons (unchanged), East China rapeseed meal was 28.59 million tons (down 0.34 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil was 2.8 million tons (down 0.75 million tons), and South China rapeseed meal was 21.1 million tons (down 0.3 million tons) [2] - Weekly pick - up volumes: Rapeseed oil was 3.18 million tons (up 1.63 million tons), and rapeseed meal was 2.41 million tons (down 0.38 million tons) [2] 5. Downstream Situation - Feed production was 2,927.2 million tons (up 99.9 million tons), and edible vegetable oil production was 450.6 million tons (up 30 million tons) [2] - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan (down 8.4 billion yuan) [2] 6. Options Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 19.62% (down 1.16%), and rapeseed oil was 13.43% (down 1.04%) [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 19.62% (down 1.16%), and rapeseed oil was 13.45% (down 1.02%) [2] - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal was 23.55% (up 0.73%), and rapeseed oil was 17.23% (up 1.7%) [2] - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal was 24.81% (up 0.31%), and rapeseed oil was 14.85% (up 0.52%) [2] 7. Industry News - ICE Canadian rapeseed futures closed down, with the benchmark contract down 1.4%, following the external market [2] - US Midwest soybean harvest was advancing, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans continued to restrain prices. US soybean exports faced pressure as China had not ordered current - year US soybeans [2] - Canadian rapeseed production was estimated at 20 million tons, the highest since 2018, and the harvest was underway, putting pressure on prices [2] - Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy advanced, benefiting the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% to 2.36 million tons at the end of September [2] 8. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Supply - side pressure was small due to restricted imports, but demand was weakening as aquaculture demand declined with the temperature drop, and soybean meal substitution was strong [2] - The market was cautious due to the lack of US government data, and the rapeseed meal was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [2] 9. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The initial ruling on anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed was expected to tighten imports in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil would continue to destock, supporting prices [2] - However, soybean oil supply was abundant, and rapeseed oil demand was mainly for essential use. Affected by the weakening of external oils, rapeseed oil closed down in a volatile manner [2] 10. Key Points to Watch - The weekly rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories from Myagric, and the trends of Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [2]