瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251013

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: PVC Industry Daily Report 2025-10-13 [2] - Researchers: Lin Jingyi (F03139610, Z0021558), Xu Tianze (F03133092) [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently facing multiple challenges. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the daily K - line focusing on the support near the low point of 4690 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the supply pressure of PVC remains at a relatively high level, and the demand growth is restricted by the weak domestic real estate market. The inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend, and the cost - end support is limited [3] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4721 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the trading volume is 641,958 lots, down 46,657 lots; the open interest is 1,235,033 lots, up 17,477 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 906,556 lots, up 9,186 lots; the short position is 1,059,609 lots, up 12,492 lots; the net long position is - 153,053 lots, down 3,306 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4,644.23 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the price of PVC ethylene method is 4,885 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of PVC calcium carbide method is 4,699.38 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 715 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 111 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [3] Upstream Market - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,673.33 yuan/ton, down 11.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2,530 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price is 524 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 549 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 82.63%, up 3.66 percentage points; the operating rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 82.94%, up 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of PVC ethylene method is 81.9%, up 2.15 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 557,000 tons, up 19,300 tons; the inventory in the East China region is 502,700 tons, up 14,300 tons; the inventory in the South China region is 54,300 tons, up 5,000 tons [3] Downstream Market - The national real estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.01 million square meters, up 45.95 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6.4310894 billion square meters, up 4.37794 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, up 35.8801 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 11.32%, down 0.35 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.15%, down 0.09 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of PVC is 14.41%, down 0.74 percentage points [3] Group 5: Industry News Summary - From October 4th to 10th, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 82.63%, up 1.21% from the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 7.6% to 32.83%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 23.04% to 15.87%. As of October 9th, the PVC social inventory was 1.0363 million tons, up 5.58% from the previous week. From October 4th to 10th, the cost of PVC calcium carbide method decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene method decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide method increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene method increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3]