瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251013

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term SH2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range estimated to be around 2460 - 2520. High warehouse receipts still have a suppressing effect on the futures price. There are new alumina plants to be put into operation from this fourth quarter to early next year, which gives an improvement expectation for the long - term supply - demand situation. However, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories is relatively high currently [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2464 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position of the main contract is 109,226 lots, up 721 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 1357 lots, up 466 lots; the trading volume of the main contract is 289,693 lots, up 8272 lots. The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2464 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan, and that of the May contract is 2563 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2562.5 yuan/ton, up 15.62 yuan. The basis of caustic soda is 130 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 175 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 25 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina is 2875 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7%. From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% week - on - week to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% week - on - week to 66.63%. As of October 9th, the inventory of caustic soda sample factories with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 421,200 tons (wet weight), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56%. From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 341 yuan/ton [3].