Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-13 09:10Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production and capacity utilization rate of PE increased significantly last week due to the restart of devices at Jilin Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, etc. The downstream start - up rate of PE increased slightly week - on - week, and the agricultural film start - up rate continued seasonal growth. The inventory of production enterprises and social inventory are in a de - stocking trend with little inventory pressure. The oil - based and coal - based costs decreased to varying degrees, and the profits were repaired. This week, affected by the maintenance of devices at Qilu Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Daqing Petrochemical, the production and capacity utilization rate of PE are expected to decline month - on - month. In the long - term, the PE supply may increase significantly. The demand for downstream greenhouse films is gradually reaching the annual high, but the orders and start - up performance of agricultural films are both worse than previous years. Affected by the US's claim to impose additional tariffs on China, international oil prices fell significantly on Friday. After the previous negative factors are gradually digested, the short - term L2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6950 - 7040 [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene was 6983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 7029 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7071 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan [2] - The trading volume was 280,022 lots, an increase of 54,889 lots; the open interest was 564,785 lots, an increase of 6917 lots [2] - The 1 - 5 spread was - 46, a decrease of 17; the buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 414,526 lots, an increase of 4905 lots; the sell order volume was 483,217 lots, an increase of 8308 lots; the net buy order volume was - 68,691 lots, a decrease of 3403 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7060.87 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.7 yuan; the average price in East China was 7240.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] - The basis was 77.87 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.58 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 576.75 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 US dollars [2] - The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 781 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars; the CFR middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 786 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE start - up rate was 83.95%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of polyethylene packaging film was 52.89%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points; the start - up rate of polyethylene pipes was 31.67%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the start - up rate of polyethylene agricultural films was 35.61%, an increase of 2.75 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 7.66%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.03%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.33%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.34%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, China's total polyethylene production was 664,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.04%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points compared with the previous period [2] - From September 26th to October 9th, the average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.24% compared with the previous period, among which the start - up rate of agricultural films increased by 2.75% [2] - As of October 9th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 488,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.67%; as of September 30th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 382,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.50% [2] - From October 4th to 10th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.37% month - on - month to 7414 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 172.86 yuan/ton to - 221 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.30% month - on - month to 6564 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 14.29 yuan/ton to 570.29 yuan/ton [2]