东吴证券晨会纪要-20251014

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the economic situation is influenced by the upcoming measures for counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on the timing of restarting government bond trading and the potential for interest rate cuts depending on the economic outlook for Q4 2025 [1][12][13] - The ECI supply index is at 49.99%, showing a slight decline, while the demand index is at 49.91%, indicating a mixed economic recovery influenced by the recent holidays [12][13] - The report highlights the potential limited impact of Trump's renewed tariff threats on the US economy, while emphasizing the need to monitor retaliatory measures and the escalation of trade conflicts into critical sectors like rare earths and semiconductors [1][12][14] Fixed Income - The report discusses the recent issuance of secondary capital bonds, with one bond issued at a scale of 1.2 billion yuan, and a total trading volume of approximately 44.5 billion yuan, which is a significant decrease from the previous week [3][20] - It notes the issuance of green bonds totaling approximately 15.25 billion yuan, with a decrease in trading volume to 41.8 billion yuan, indicating a cooling in the market [4][21] - The report suggests that investors should prioritize controllable pullbacks in convertible bonds and focus on performance improvement or valuation recovery rather than getting caught up in clause negotiations [15][18] Company Analysis - Hong Kong Travel (00308.HK) is focusing on core profitable businesses by divesting its tourism real estate assets, with projected net profits of 270 million, 420 million, and 600 million HKD for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 31, 20, and 14 times [5][7] - Guangyang Co., Ltd. (002708) is expected to achieve revenues of 2.774 billion, 3.700 billion, and 4.795 billion yuan, with net profits of 108 million, 218 million, and 363 million yuan for 2025-2027, indicating a recovery in profitability and new growth opportunities in FPC, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots [8] - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) anticipates net profits of 430 million, 650 million, and 820 million yuan for 2025-2027, benefiting from the recovery of the polyester industry and the upcoming production of its Qinzhou project [9] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) is projected to have net profits of 1.9 billion, 2.9 billion, and 4.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a focus on benefiting from stable growth policies in the petrochemical sector [11]