软商品日报：美元波动引发美棉震荡，棉花观望为主-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Volatility [1] - Cotton - Volatility [1] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of sugar and cotton, including supply - demand, price fluctuations, and inventory changes, and suggests a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] Market Trends - US sugar closed at 15.57 with a change of - 3.29%, and US cotton closed at 63.54 with a change of - 0.36% [1] Supply - Demand Analysis - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory Information - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8681.0, a change of - 2.10%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2867.0, a change of - 2.55% [2] Conclusions - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar - beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, delaying sugar - factory operations. Typhoons in September and early October affected sugar - cane in Guangdong and Guangxi, and the post - disaster recovery of sugar - cane growth needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, with some areas having higher yields and quality than expected. As of October 6, the cotton - picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Suggestions - Wait - and - see [3] Data Overview Outer - Market Quotes - US sugar: From 16.1 on October 12, 2025, to 15.57 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 3.29% - US cotton: From 63.77 on October 12, 2025, to 63.54 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 0.36% [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning): 5800.0 yuan on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% - Sugar (Kunming): 5810.0 yuan on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% - Cotton Index 328: From 3281 on October 11, 2025, to 3280 on October 13, 2025, a change of 0.09% - Cotton (Xinjiang): 14650.0 yuan on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% [4] Spread Overview - SR01 - 05: From 27.0 on October 12, 2025, to 32.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 18.52% - SR05 - 09: From - 3.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 11.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 266.67% - SR09 - 01: From - 24.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 21.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 12.50% - CF01 - 05: From - 50.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 60.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 20.00% - CF05 - 09: From - 175.0 on October 12, 2025, to - 170.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 2.86% - CF09 - 01: From 225.0 on October 12, 2025, to 230.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.22% [4] Basis - Sugar 01 basis: From 314.0 on October 12, 2025, to 340.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 8.28% - Sugar 05 basis: From 341.0 on October 12, 2025, to 372.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 9.09% - Sugar 09 basis: From 338.0 on October 12, 2025, to 361.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 6.80% - Cotton 01 basis: From 1450.0 on October 12, 2025, to 1489.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.69% - Cotton 05 basis: From 1400.0 on October 12, 2025, to 1429.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.07% - Cotton 09 basis: From 1225.0 on October 12, 2025, to 1259.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of 2.78% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA: 76.05 on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit: 1459.0 on both October 11 and 13, 2025, a change of 0.00% [4] Options - SR601C5500: Implied volatility 0.0844, futures underlying SR601, historical volatility 6.69 - SR601P5500: Implied volatility 0.0806 - CF601C13200: Implied volatility 0.0971, futures underlying CF601, historical volatility 7.76 - CF601P13200: Implied volatility 0.0966 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar: From 8867.0 on October 11, 2025, to 8681.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 2.10% - Cotton: From 2942.0 on October 11, 2025, to 2867.0 on October 13, 2025, a change of - 2.55% [4]