金信期货日刊：尿素现价接近成本，把握多的机会-20251014

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute on October 14, 2025 [1] - The core view is to provide investment analysis and suggestions for various futures products, including urea, stock index futures, gold, iron ore, glass, eggs, and pulp [4][7][11] Group 2: Urea Market Analysis - Urea 2601 contract's short - term rise is due to short - term factors. The current price increase lacks fundamental support and may face weakening pressure later [3][4] - In 2025, urea production capacity enters a growth cycle, with over 7 million tons of new capacity. Daily output is around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventory reaches 1.2 million tons, showing a supply - exceeding - demand pattern [4] - The demand side is in the off - season. Agricultural fertilizer use in autumn is over, the compound fertilizer start - up rate drops to 38%, and industrial demand is weak. There will be no significant improvement in the fourth quarter [4] - In the short term, coal prices support fixed - bed urea costs close to the current price, gas - head enterprises are in the red. There is a potential for the start of off - season storage demand and possible loosening of export policies, so short - term long opportunities can be grasped [4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Analysis - On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and moved higher. The STAR Market led the index to turn positive, the Shanghai Composite Index filled the gap, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were relatively weak. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7] Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - Both domestic and foreign gold markets reached new highs with large positive lines, but short - term chasing is not advisable. Low - buying and long - holding is recommended [11] Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and hot metal production may decline. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [14] - In the short term, the supply side is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents, but in the long run, supply is expected to be loose with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Group 6: Glass Market Analysis - The supply side is undergoing clearance. Technically, after recent continuous declines, attention should be paid to the right - side trading opportunities after stabilization. The future driving force lies in policy - end stimulus and anti - involution policies [20] Group 7: Egg Market Analysis - The inventory of laying hens continues to increase, and egg supply is sufficient, suppressing price rebounds. However, based on current prices and costs, each laying hen is expected to lose 16.90 yuan in the future. Short - term long opportunities can be grasped [22] Group 8: Pulp Market Analysis - Today, the pulp price in Shandong has decreased. China's cumulative pulp imports from January to September are 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Domestic port inventories remain high. The market is expected to be weak, and selling on rebounds is recommended [26]