晨会报告：基础化工2025年Q3业绩前瞻：Q3淡季叠加成本走高，周期品价差回落，化工盈利季节性承压-20251014

Core Insights - The report highlights that the chemical industry is facing seasonal pressure on profitability due to the traditional off-peak season in Q3 2025, coupled with rising costs and a decline in price differentials for cyclical products [5][12][6] - Despite the challenges, certain sub-sectors such as agricultural chemicals, phosphates, and potassium fertilizers are expected to see significant year-on-year profit growth due to strong demand [5][12][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Q3 2025 is characterized as a traditional off-peak season for the chemical industry, with a decrease in downstream operating rates and a general state of inventory reduction [5][12] - The average price of Brent crude oil is projected at $69.29 per barrel, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14% but a slight increase of 2% compared to the previous quarter [5][12] - The NYMEX natural gas futures price is expected to be $3.08 per million British thermal units, showing a year-on-year increase of 38% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12% [5][12] - The average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is anticipated to be 673 RMB per ton, indicating a year-on-year decline of 21% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [5][12] Profit Forecasts - The report forecasts that the weighted average EPS for Q3 2025 will be 0.25 RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.93% but a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [12][6] - Key sub-sectors expected to see significant year-on-year profit growth include agricultural chemicals, phosphates, potassium fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and semiconductor materials [5][12][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: agricultural chemicals, textile and apparel chains, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [6][12] - Specific companies to watch include Hualu Chemical and Baofeng Energy in the nitrogen fertilizer sector, Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group in the phosphate sector, and companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. in the fluorochemical sector [6][12] Key Assumptions - The report identifies potential risks, including slower-than-expected progress on new industry projects and export disruptions leading to significant price declines for certain chemical products [6][12]