绿色甲醇系列一：IMO碳税落地在即，绿色燃料投资元年

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the green methanol industry, highlighting it as an investment year due to the impending implementation of the IMO carbon tax and the demand for green fuels [5][8]. Core Insights - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to review the Net Zero Framework (NZF) in October 2025, which will impose mandatory emission limits and greenhouse gas pricing on the shipping industry, potentially increasing the demand for green fuels such as green methanol [5][8]. - The demand for green methanol is projected to range from 12.9 million to 95.37 million tons by 2030, depending on various scenarios regarding the adoption of zero-emission fuels [8][33]. - The economic analysis suggests that biodiesel will achieve price parity by 2033, while green methanol is expected to become economically viable by 2034 [9][47]. Summary by Sections Policy and Regulatory Framework - The IMO has revised its greenhouse gas reduction strategy, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050, with stricter interim targets for 2030 and 2040 [15][18]. - The NZF framework, once approved, will be incorporated into the MARPOL convention, providing a legal basis for enforcing carbon taxes on non-compliant vessels [28][22]. Economic Viability - Current cost estimates show that biodiesel is more economically favorable than green methanol, but green methanol is expected to reach parity by 2034 [9][47]. - The cost structure of alternative fuels indicates that fuel prices and carbon emission costs significantly impact overall operational costs [51][54]. Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include companies with core competencies in green methanol production, such as wind and solar energy firms, environmental companies, and certain chemical manufacturers [11][20]. - There are also opportunities in multi-stage supporting technology and equipment service providers across the green methanol supply chain, including hydrogen storage and carbon capture technologies [11][20]. Demand Projections - The report estimates that the demand for green methanol could reach 95.37 million tons under optimistic scenarios, with a minimum of 12.9 million tons under pessimistic conditions by 2030 [33][36]. - The analysis of the shipping industry's transition to green fuels indicates a significant market potential for green methanol as a primary fuel source [33][36].