宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. The expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the price of the 2601 contract [5]. - For palm oil, after the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound despite the short - term fluctuations caused by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - Core Logic: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. There is a procurement gap for the 12 - 1 January shipment, and the expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the 2601 contract [5]. - Key Factors: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][6]. - Core Logic: With the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain, the decline of palm oil futures prices has widened. After the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound [7]. - Key Factors: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Not in detailed description but in overview) - Viewpoints: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - Key Factors: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].