Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's concerns about the Sino-US trade situation have eased, with precious metal prices hitting new highs and copper prices significantly rebounding. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, while lead and zinc prices are expected to oscillate at low levels with increased risk volatility. Tin prices may maintain high-level oscillations, and nickel prices may have limited downside space in the medium to long term. Lithium carbonate prices are likely to oscillate weakly, and alumina prices suggest waiting and seeing. Stainless steel market trends are expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above [2][3][6][9][12][14][17][20][24][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market Information: LME 3M copper rose 4.13% to $10,802/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 86,520 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 50 tons, and domestic social inventory increased. The spot premium in Shanghai was 80 yuan/ton, and the import loss was about 800 yuan/ton [2] - Strategy View: Overseas copper mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output tighten supply, supporting prices. If the trade situation escalates in the short term, copper prices may remain strong. The SHFE copper main contract is expected to trade between 85,800 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and LME 3M copper between $10,700 - $10,900/ton [3] Aluminum - Market Information: LME 3M aluminum rose 0.4% to $2,757/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,975 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased, and futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic inventory increased, and the spot discount in East China remained at 50 yuan/ton [5] - Strategy View: With increased domestic aluminum water ratio, seasonal consumption recovery, and resilient exports, aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to trade between 20,800 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and LME 3M aluminum between $2,730 - $2,790/ton [6] Lead - Market Information: SHFE lead index fell 0.23% to 17,102 yuan/ton, and LME 3S lead fell to $2,010.5/ton. SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory remained unchanged at 3.58 tons [8] - Strategy View: Lead ore inventory rose slightly, and primary lead smelting started at a high level. Recycled lead smelting started at a low level, and lead ingot factory inventory increased. After the large-scale cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, structural risks increased. Short-term SHFE lead is expected to oscillate at low levels with increased risk volatility [9] Zinc - Market Information: SHFE zinc index fell 0.05% to 22,277 yuan/ton, and LME 3S zinc rose to $3,019.5/ton. SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,200 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory increased slightly to 16.31 tons [10] - Strategy View: During the holiday, domestic zinc smelters continued production, and most downstream enterprises maintained normal operations. LME zinc registered warehouse receipts are at a low level, with structural risks remaining. Short-term SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate at low levels with increased risk volatility [11][12] Tin - Market Information: On October 13, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 282,100 yuan/ton, down 1.48%. Domestic futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 64 tons. Supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is tight, and the smelting start rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. Downstream new energy and AI are booming, but traditional electronics and photovoltaic are weak. The "Golden September and Silver October" season has improved consumption marginally [13] - Strategy View: Short-term Sino-US trade friction may lower market risk appetite, but tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices may maintain high-level oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to trade between 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and LME tin between $34,000 - $36,000/ton [14] Nickel - Market Information: On Monday, nickel prices oscillated. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121,410 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. Spot market transactions were average, and nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable. MHP coefficient prices were high due to increased downstream demand [15][16] - Strategy View: Short-term Sino-US trade friction may lower market risk appetite, but nickel prices were less affected due to limited previous increases. Recently, nickel iron prices weakened, and refined nickel inventory pressure was significant. In the medium to long term, US easing expectations and domestic policies will support nickel prices, and new RKAB approvals may be positive. Short-term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if prices fall enough. SHFE nickel main contract is expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME 3M nickel between $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 73,011 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. LC2511 contract closed at 72,280 yuan, down 0.63%. The average spot premium was -150 yuan [19] - Strategy View: Affected by external macro news, commodities are generally weak. Lithium carbonate is in the consumption peak season, and social inventory is decreasing, supporting prices. However, the resumption of Zangge Lithium's production eases supply concerns, suppressing price rebounds. Prices are likely to oscillate weakly. The LC2511 contract is expected to trade between 70,600 - 74,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - Market Information: On October 13, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.19% to 2,827 yuan/ton. Positions increased by 1.8 million hands. Shandong spot price fell to 2,86 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton. Overseas FOB price was $324/ton, and the import profit was 4 yuan/ton. Futures warehouse receipts increased by 2.11 tons [22] - Strategy View: Ore prices are supported in the short term but may be under pressure after the rainy season. Alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and inventory is accumulating. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus. Fed rate cut expectations may drive the non-ferrous sector up. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to trade between 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, focusing on supply policies, Guinea's ore policy, and Fed monetary policy [23][24] Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased, and social inventory increased by 7.97% to 105.36 tons, with 300-series inventory increasing by 5.09% to 64.85 tons [26] - Strategy View: After the holiday, social inventory increased significantly, but terminal consumption was flat, lacking the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season characteristics. Spot prices led by Qing Shan decreased, and market sentiment was weak. The market trend is expected to be weak [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: AD2511 contract fell 0.64% to 20,335 yuan/ton. Positions and trading volume increased, and warehouse receipts increased. The price of domestic ADC12 decreased slightly, and downstream was cautious. Imported ADC12 price decreased, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [28] - Strategy View: Market sentiment recovery drove aluminum prices up, stabilizing alloy prices. However, increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on near-month contracts [29]
有色金属日报-20251014
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-14 01:28