宝城期货铁矿石早报-20251014

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Although the demand for iron ore is currently good and transportation costs have increased, supporting high - level prices, the supply is high and the demand resilience is weakening, so the upward driving force of high - valued iron ore prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the performance of the steel market [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillating, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand performs well and the ore price remains at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is stabilizing, and the rigid demand for ore is good, which supports the ore price. However, contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the positive effect will weaken. - Domestic port ore arrivals have reached a new high for the year, while miners' shipments have slightly declined from the high level. Overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply is also recovering after the holiday, increasing supply pressure. - Currently, the ore demand is good, and the increase in transportation costs has an impact. Positive factors support the high - level operation of ore prices. But the supply is high and the demand resilience is weakening, and the fundamentals are expected to deteriorate, limiting the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices [2].