国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situation and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight correction [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are likely to have wide - range oscillations [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal will have weak oscillations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][14]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Futures price (12601) closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan or 1.19%. Spot prices of various imported ores decreased by 2 yuan/ton, while some domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - News: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 decreased. Spot prices in major regions also declined. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads [7]. - News: In October 2025, the US announced export controls on rare earths and other related items from China, imposing a 100% tariff. In August 2025, China's steel exports decreased slightly, while imports increased. According to the October 8th weekly data, steel production decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Fundamentals: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and there were changes in various spreads [10]. - News: On October 13th, the prices of silicon iron 72 in some regions decreased. Hebei Steel's 10 - month silicon iron and manganese silicon tenders decreased in quantity. Yunnan Kunsteel's silicon iron purchase price decreased [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Spot prices of some coking coals decreased, while most coke prices remained unchanged. There were changes in basis and spreads [14]. - News: China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs, stating that corresponding measures would be taken if the US persists [15]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Logs - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while some had slight changes [17]. - News: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [19]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [19].