研究所晨会观点精萃-20251014

Overall Core View - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the restrained statements from both China and the US. The domestic economic growth has accelerated, and the issuance of multiple industry stabilization and growth plans has increased policy support, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. Market Analysis by Asset Class Macro - finance - Stock Index: Short - term high - level adjustment with increased volatility, short - term cautious long. The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as consumer electronics, auto parts, and short - drama games. The short - term macro upward drive is not strong, and short - term cautious waiting and watching are recommended [2][3]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching [2]. - Commodity Sector: - Black Metals: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching. Steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, while iron ore prices were short - term strong and silicon - manganese/silicon - iron prices were expected to continue range - bound oscillations [2][4][6]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term adjustment, short - term cautious long [2]. - Energy and Chemicals: Short - term oscillation, cautious waiting and watching [2]. - Precious Metals: Short - term high - level strong - side oscillation, cautious long. The precious metal market continued to rise, and short - term long positions should be held, while medium - and long - term buying on dips is recommended [2][3]. Specific Commodities Metals - Steel: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak, with low - level trading volume. Although the export data in September exceeded expectations and market risk appetite increased, real - world demand has not improved, and supply remains high. The steel market is expected to be weak in the short term [4]. - Iron Ore: Futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Ore demand remains strong, but the expectation of steel mill production cuts has increased. Supply and inventory data show mixed trends, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to when steel mills start to cut production [4][5]. - Silicon - manganese/Silicon - iron: Spot and futures prices declined slightly. Alloy demand is still okay in the short term, but the prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations [6]. - Copper: The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be relatively high in 2026. However, the US economy has uncertainties, and the domestic electrolytic copper demand is facing challenges. The copper inventory reduction is less than expected, and the US copper inventory is high [7]. - Aluminum: The price recovered due to the alleviation of trade tension concerns. The inventory has increased, and the demand has weakened marginally. It is difficult for the price to rise significantly [8]. - Tin: The global tin ore supply is tight, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to remain high - level oscillating, but the upside is pressured [8]. - Carbonate Lithium: The price of the main contract declined. Short - term upward drive is insufficient, and the market is expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of the main contract rose. The production has reached a new high, and the market is expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - Polysilicon: The price of the main contract declined. The supply is high, the demand is low, and the market is waiting for the implementation of the storage purchase news [10]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The price rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, but it remains below $60. The long - term trend is bearish, and the short - term is oscillating [11][12]. - Asphalt: It maintains a weak - side oscillating pattern. The peak - season demand is almost over, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamental driving force for recovery is weak [12]. - PX: It follows the polyester sector and remains in a weak - side oscillation. Although it gets some demand support, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly [12]. - PTA: It maintains a low - level oscillation. The demand pressure will increase, and the supply will remain high, resulting in an oversupply situation [13]. - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory has increased, the demand has weakened, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level range [13]. - Short - fiber: It adjusts with the polyester sector and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [13]. - Methanol: The supply growth rate far exceeds the demand recovery, resulting in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - PP: The post - holiday market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but the supply pressure in the long - term is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure [14]. - LLDPE: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [15]. - Urea: The market is operating weakly due to the strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and the future trend depends on the export policy [15]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The concerns about Trump's tariff remarks in the CBOT market have eased, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is good [16]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The import of soybeans in the fourth quarter is expected to be abundant, and the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract is difficult to rebound significantly. The market should pay attention to the performance of the CBOT soybean market [17]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The soybean oil inventory has increased, and the price may be relatively weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, which forms a support [18]. - Palm Oil: The Southeast Asian palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle. The October production in Malaysia increases, which suppresses the price, while the export increase also provides some support [18].