集运指数（欧线）：或震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is rated as 1, indicating a "neutral" view on the market trend, with the range of trend strength being an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [14]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) showed a low - opening rebound yesterday. Looking forward, the market trading has three main lines: the European line's own fundamentals, resumption of shipping expectations, and macro - sentiment disturbances caused by changes in Sino - US tariff policies [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: EC2510 closed at 1,129.4 with a daily increase of 0.35%, EC2512 at 1,562.5 with a daily decrease of 2.65%, and EC2602 at 1,359.9 with a daily decrease of 0.40%. The difference between EC2512 and EC2604 is 464.0, and the difference between EC2602 and EC2604 is 261.4 [1]. - Freight Index Data: On October 13, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 1,031.80 points, down 1.4% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 862.48 points, down 1.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,068/TEU, up 10.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1,468/FEU, up 0.5% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Data: For European line spot freight from Shanghai to Rotterdam, prices range from $1,806 - $2,292 for 40'GP and $1,085 - $1,605 for 20'GP among different carriers [1]. - Exchange Rate Data: The US dollar index was 98.84, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.12 [1]. 3.2 Capacity Analysis - October: The weekly average capacity was revised down from 26.5 to 25.7 TEU/week before the holiday, mainly due to many delayed sailings on the FE4 route. The spot market will mainly handle cargo for weeks 43 and 44 next week, corresponding to capacity supplies of 290,000 and 335,000 TEU respectively, with sufficient cabin space [11]. - November: The weekly average capacity was 307,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), a 19% month - on - month increase and an 8.9% year - on - year increase. Key points include new sailings cancellations on COSCO's AEU7, pending voyages on CMA's FAL1 and Evergreen's CES in week 48, 2 actual empty sailings on the PA alliance's Northwest European route, and MSC's full - sail operation in November [11]. - December: There are 6 pending and 3 empty sailings, with a weekly average capacity of 295,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), and there is room for significant revision due to many pending voyages [11]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - EC2510 Contract: Expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [12]. - EC2512 Contract: The peak - season attribute cannot be ignored. There are both positive and negative views. Positive factors include investors' TACO trading expectations and the resilience of the European line's fundamentals. Negative factors include uncertainties in the trade war and the possibility of the market significantly discounting if the price increase in early November fails to materialize [13]. - EC2602 Contract: The key points are the impact of the later Spring Festival in 2026, the uncertainty of resumption of shipping in February, and the valuation mainly depending on the freight level in January [13]. - EC2604 Contract: With the increasing pressure of over - capacity, its upper - limit valuation can be anchored to EC2510, and the lower - limit space may expand further with the shipping companies' resumption of shipping schedule [14]. 3.4 Macro News - The US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey signed a Gaza cease - fire agreement in Sharm El - Sheikh, Egypt on October 13, 2025. The "Peace Summit" was hosted by Egyptian President Sisi and US President Trump [9]. - The US Middle East Envoy, Wietkof, will stay in Egypt for a long time at the instruction of President Trump [9].