尿素早评：关键还是在出口-20251014

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2) Core View - The urea futures market saw a short - covering rally, likely due to short - term profit - taking by bears. The spot market remains dull, and the expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. Without further changes in exports and with weakening domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply, leading to continued low - level price fluctuations. However, urea is currently undervalued, and short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: 1610 yuan/ton on October 13, up 13 yuan (0.81%) from October 10 [1] - UR05: 1678 yuan/ton on October 13, up 12 yuan (0.72%) from October 10 [1] - UR09: 1710 yuan/ton on October 13, up 8 yuan (0.47%) from October 10 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1530 yuan/ton on October 13, down 20 yuan (-1.29%) from October 10 [1] - Shanxi: 1450 yuan/ton on October 13, down 10 yuan (-0.68%) from October 10 [1] - Henan: 1520 yuan/ton on October 13, down 20 yuan (-1.30%) from October 10 [1] - Hebei: 1570 yuan/ton on October 13, down 30 yuan (-1.88%) from October 10 [1] - Northeast: 1630 yuan/ton on October 13, unchanged from October 10 [1] - Jiangsu: 1530 yuan/ton on October 13, down 30 yuan (-1.92%) from October 10 [1] Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: -148 yuan/ton on October 13, down 32 yuan from October 10 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: -68 yuan/ton on October 13, up 1 yuan from October 10 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively from October 10 to October 13 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively from October 10 to October 13 [1] - Melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively from October 10 to October 13 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1590 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1617 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1583 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1610 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1605 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 326154 lots [1]