交银国际每日晨报-20251014

Global Macro - The report indicates that the likelihood of the proposed large-scale tariff increases by the US on China is low, despite recent announcements by President Trump regarding a 100% tariff increase on certain exports starting November 1, 2025 [3][4] - It is expected that both parties will likely reach a de-escalation arrangement during the upcoming summit, which would stabilize trade relations and create conditions for further economic stability [3][4] - Short-term fluctuations in Chinese assets are anticipated, but these should not alter the medium-term bullish trend, presenting potential buying opportunities [4] Automotive Industry - In September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 57.8%, with retail sales of passenger vehicles hitting a record high of 2.241 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [5][7] - The export of passenger vehicles, including NEVs, maintained a strong growth momentum, with total exports reaching 528,000 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [5][7] - The report suggests that the upcoming adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy in 2026 is likely to stimulate consumer purchases before the end of the year, particularly during the peak sales season [7] - Investors are advised to remain cautious as the market may enter a consumption lull after the fourth quarter sales surge, with specific attention to stock price fluctuations in the sector [7]