Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market has uncertainties in the short - term due to concerns about Sino - US tariffs, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - Precious metals are in an accelerating upward phase in the short - term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions at current prices carry high risks [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. may be affected by Sino - US trade relations and their own supply - demand fundamentals, with different price trends and trading suggestions [10][11][12][13]. - In the black building materials sector, steel and iron ore prices may be affected by Trump's tariff statements and their own supply - demand situations. The future trend depends on policy and demand recovery [31][33]. - In the energy - chemical sector, the prices of various products such as rubber, crude oil, and methanol are affected by macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy expectations, with different trading strategies [47][52][56]. - For agricultural products, the prices of products like hogs, eggs, and soybeans are affected by supply - demand relations, seasonal factors, and trade policies, and corresponding trading suggestions are given [76][78][80]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - Market Information: In September, passenger car retail sales reached a new peak. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rebounded significantly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $4100 per ounce, up 56% this year. JPMorgan will provide up to $1.5 trillion in financing for key US industries [2]. - Strategy: After the previous continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown differences. The short - term index faces uncertainties due to Sino - US tariff concerns, but the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. China's foreign trade data showed an increase in exports and a slight decrease in imports. Trump said the Gaza war was over. The central bank conducted a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy: The recent escalation of Sino - US trade disputes is beneficial for the bond market's repair in the short - term, but the long - term trend depends on fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the fourth quarter [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. The shortage of silver in the London spot market drove up prices, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7][8]. - Strategy: Precious metals are in an accelerating upward phase in the short - term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions at current prices carry high risks [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The concern about Sino - US trade relations eased, and copper prices rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories changed [10]. - Strategy: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. The supply - demand relationship supports copper prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, copper prices may remain strong [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: Market sentiment recovered, and aluminum prices rose. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - Strategy: Sino - US trade relations are uncertain. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to factors such as domestic consumption and copper price drive [13]. Zinc - Market Information: Shanghai zinc index slightly declined, and LME zinc rose. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data were provided [14][15]. - Strategy: After the holiday, domestic zinc production was normal. The low registered LME zinc warehouse receipts pose a structural risk. Short - term, Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk [16]. Lead - Market Information: Shanghai lead index declined, and LME lead also fell. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data were provided [17]. - Strategy: The lead market has some changes in supply and demand. Due to Trump's tariff statement, short - term Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased risk [17]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices oscillated. The cost of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron was slightly weak [18]. - Strategy: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the long - term, nickel prices have support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips [20]. Tin - Market Information: Shanghai tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was mixed [21]. - Strategy: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate due to supply - demand balance and seasonal demand [21]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The spot index of carbonate lithium was stable, and the futures price declined slightly [22]. - Strategy: Affected by macro news, carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to macro environment changes and demand expectations [22]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index declined. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import window was close to closing [24]. - Strategy: The short - term ore price has support, but the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on supply - side policies and Fed policies [25]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel futures price declined, and the spot price also decreased. The inventory increased after the holiday [26]. - Strategy: After the holiday, the inventory increased, and the terminal consumption was weak. The market is expected to trend weakly [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The AD2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy declined. The inventory decreased slightly, and the trading was light [27]. - Strategy: The cost - side aluminum price rebounded, but the increase in warehouse receipts puts pressure on the price [28][29]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The inventory and spot prices also changed [31]. - Strategy: Trump's tariff statement may impact the steel market. The demand during the National Day holiday was weak. The future trend depends on policy and demand recovery [31]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron - ore futures price rose. The spot price and basis were provided [32]. - Strategy: The supply of iron ore decreased seasonally, and the demand was relatively stable. The future trend depends on downstream demand and trade policies [33][34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass futures price declined, and the inventory increased. The soda - ash futures price rose slightly, and the inventory also increased [35][36]. - Strategy: Glass prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and soda - ash prices are expected to trend weakly due to supply - demand imbalance [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The spot prices and basis were provided [37]. - Strategy: The black - building materials sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the sector's trend [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The industrial - silicon futures price rose, and the polysilicon futures price declined. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [41][44]. - Strategy: Industrial - silicon prices may rise in the long - term due to supply reduction and cost support. Polysilicon prices are expected to adjust technically in the short - term [43][45]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - Market Information: Due to the US tariff statement, global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber market has different views on supply and demand [47][48]. - Strategy: The rubber price has broken down in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term. A hedging strategy is also suggested [51]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude - oil and refined - oil futures prices declined. China's crude - oil and refined - oil inventory data changed [52]. - Strategy: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export - support willingness [53]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices in different regions changed. The basis and 1 - 5 spread also changed [54]. - Strategy: The methanol market has supply - demand pressure, but the short - term downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices in different regions declined. The basis and 1 - 5 spread changed [57]. - Strategy: After the holiday, the urea market has supply - demand pressure. It is recommended to wait and see at low prices [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [58]. - Strategy: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling due to inventory reduction [59]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC futures price declined. The cost, supply - demand, and inventory data were provided [60][61]. - Strategy: The PVC market has a supply - demand imbalance. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose. The supply - demand and inventory data were provided [63]. - Strategy: The ethylene - glycol market is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [64]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and processing - fee data were provided [65]. - Strategy: The PTA market has a short - term de - stocking pattern, but the processing - fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: The PX futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and valuation data were provided [68]. - Strategy: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to terminal and PTA valuation changes [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis data were provided [70]. - Strategy: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to cost and inventory factors [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP futures price declined. The supply - demand, inventory, and basis data were provided [72][73]. - Strategy: The PP market has supply - demand pressure and high inventory. The short - term has no prominent contradiction [74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Market Information: Domestic hog prices varied. Northern farmers were reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening supported prices [76]. - Strategy: The supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads after the spot stabilizes [77]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable or declined. The market had supply - demand pressure [78]. - Strategy: After the holiday, the egg market has multiple negative factors. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term and wait for a rebound to short - sell in the long - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: CBOT soybeans declined. Domestic soybean - meal prices rose, and the inventory decreased [80]. - Strategy: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term and expect range - bound oscillations in the short - term [81]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased. Domestic oil inventories changed, and prices oscillated downward [82]. - Strategy: Oils and fats are supported by supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the medium - term [83]. Sugar - Market Information: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined. Brazilian sugar production data were provided [84][85]. - Strategy: Brazilian sugar production data are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [86]. Cotton - Market Information: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. The spot price and downstream operating - rate data were provided [87]. - Strategy: Due to Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals, cotton prices are expected to decline in the short - term [88].
文字早评2025/10/14星期二：宏观金融类-20251014
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-14 01:35