国新国证期货早报-20251014

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed a collective decline on October 13, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.11%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2354.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 160.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices of various commodities showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index fluctuated widely and closed lower; coke and coking coal futures prices trended weaker; Zhengzhou sugar futures prices declined; rubber futures prices decreased; soybean meal futures prices oscillated; hog futures prices were weak; palm oil futures prices continued to decline slightly; copper futures prices had an upward - moving center with intraday corrections; cotton futures prices had a certain change in inventory; log futures prices dropped significantly; iron ore futures prices oscillated upward; asphalt futures prices oscillated downward; steel futures prices might oscillate weakly; alumina futures prices were weak; and aluminum futures prices had limited upward space [1][2][3][4][6][7][8][9][10][12][13][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Stock Index Futures - On October 13, the A - share market had a collective decline. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.50 points, down 0.19%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13231.47 points, down 0.93%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3078.76 points, down 1.11%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2354.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 160.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4593.98, a decrease of 22.86 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 13, the coke weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1665.5, down 19.0; the coking coal weighted index was weak, closing at 1162.4 yuan, down 18.2. During the National Day holiday, coking coal prices were weak, with some domestic and imported coal prices falling. Coke had its first round of price increase. Supply and demand of coke and coking coal were affected by the holiday, with changes in production, demand, and inventory [3][4][5][6]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the global sugar supply surplus and the decline in US sugar prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated downward on October 13. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September was expected to increase, and the sugar sales and inventory in Guangxi also changed [6]. Rubber - Affected by the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and the decline in Southeast Asian spot prices, the Shanghai rubber futures price oscillated downward on October 13. The total monitored natural rubber production in Malaysia in August decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the inventory situation also changed. The inventory in Qingdao showed different trends in bonded and general trade warehouses [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly on October 13. The US soybean harvest was progressing actively, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress was ahead of schedule. Domestically, the soybean meal futures oscillated on October 13. The import volume of soybeans in China was still high, and the cost support weakened. The market was affected by the Sino - US trade situation [8]. Hog - On October 13, the hog futures were weakly running. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was increasing, and the post - holiday consumption declined. However, the market was expected to stabilize and rebound after November, but the rebound height was limited by the over - capacity expectation [9]. Palm Oil - On October 13, the palm oil futures price continued to decline slightly. As of October 10, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory decreased slightly compared with the previous week but increased compared with the same period last year [10]. Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October and the shortage of supply provided support for copper prices. The intraday correction was due to the Sino - US trade friction. The supply - side support remained unchanged, and the LME copper inventory decreased [10][12]. Cotton - On the night of October 13, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13235 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased, and the machine - picked cotton price was in a certain range. The cotton harvest progress in different regions of Xinjiang was different [12]. Log - On October 13, the log 2511 contract had a large - scale decline. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the import volume from January to September decreased year - on - year [12]. Iron Ore - On October 13, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated upward. The recent iron ore shipping volume decreased, the domestic arrival volume increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron water production decreased slightly but remained high, and the steel mills had a certain replenishment demand after the holiday [13]. Asphalt - On October 13, the asphalt 2511 main contract oscillated downward. The asphalt production and shipment volume decreased, and the inventory decreased. The demand in the north was for rush - work, while the demand in the south was affected by rainfall [13]. Steel - On October 13, the steel futures prices showed different trends. The post - holiday steel market transaction was poor, and the market was affected by factors such as inventory increase, tariff events, and policy expectations [13]. Alumina - On October 13, the alumina 2601 contract closed at 2820 yuan/ton. The alumina enterprise operating rate remained high, the supply pressure increased, and the demand - side consumption increased slightly but the export volume declined, resulting in an oversupply situation [14]. Aluminum - On October 13, the aluminum 2511 contract closed at 20885 yuan/ton. The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remained high, the demand showed structural differentiation, and the social inventory continued to accumulate. The upward space of aluminum prices was limited [14].