宝城期货股指期货早报-20251014

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The subsequent trend of stock indices focuses on the interaction between the pace of policy - driven positive expectation fermentation and the profit - taking pace of profitable funds. In the short term, stock indices are expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the conflict between short - term capital profit - taking intention and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillation with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Yesterday, all stock indices opened lower, oscillated throughout the day, and closed slightly lower. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2374.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 159.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Trump's sudden tariff threat on Friday increased external uncertainty risks before November, and investors' profit - taking intention rose due to the significant increase in stock index valuations. However, the impact of Trump's tariff threat on A - shares is short - term, and its marginal effect is weaker than that in early April this year. There are still problems of insufficient effective domestic demand and external tariff disturbances, but policy positive expectations strongly support stock indices. The investment attribute of A - shares is valued by the policy, and the trend of social wealth allocation to the stock market is emerging, with continuous capital inflows driving the repair of the valuation end of stock indices [5]