宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20251014

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Gold and copper are both rated as long - term strong, with short - term and medium - term upward trends. Gold shows an intraday trend of being oscillating and strengthening, while copper is oscillating and stabilizing [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: International gold prices have been rising, with New York gold breaking through $4100 per ounce and domestic Shanghai gold rising above 930 yuan per gram [3]. - Driving Factors: The upward trend is driven by global monetary policy shifts, increased geopolitical risk aversion, and structural demand changes. Market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, geopolitical risks such as Sino - US trade friction and the Ukraine crisis, and concerns about the US government's debt problem have led to a continuous influx of safe - haven funds. Global central banks' large - scale gold purchases and strong investment demand from institutions and individuals, as shown by the record inflow of funds into global gold ETFs in September 2025, are also important factors [3]. - Short - term Outlook: Sino - US trade friction may accelerate the upward movement of gold prices, with gold likely to be stronger than silver and the gold - silver ratio rising. The 5 - day moving average can be used as a short - term strength or weakness dividing line [3]. Copper - Price Performance: On Monday, domestic copper prices oscillated and stabilized, and the night - session prices continued to rebound, recovering from the decline caused by the short - term intensification of Sino - US trade relations [5]. - Driving Factors: After the market digests trade disturbances, copper prices are in a context of macro - economic easing and shrinking demand. Attention should be paid to whether the demand side can accept high copper prices [5]. - Short - term Outlook: Copper prices are expected to continue to be strong, and attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the post - holiday high [5].