贸易紧张局势略缓和，能源化?供需偏弱格局依旧承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the energy and chemical products are rated as "oscillating weakly", including crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, pure benzene, styrene, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, polyester bottle - chip, LLDPE, PP, PL; methanol and urea are rated as "oscillating"; PVC and caustic soda are also rated as "oscillating" [9][10][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][24][29][30][31][32][33] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the energy and chemical industry remains weak. Although there are some temporary positive factors such as the easing of trade tensions and the progress of the peace agreement in the Middle East, the fundamental pressure persists. The industry is still dominated by the high - growth production period of OPEC +, facing the pressure of accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation. Most product prices are expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - View: Macroeconomic factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. Global supply is in an increasing period dominated by the high - growth production of OPEC +. Later, there will be pressure of accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation due to the decline of refinery operations. The geopolitical support is weakening, and the macro - risk is fluctuating. The short - term macro - factors play a more significant role. The oil price may rebound but the downward trend is hard to reverse [9] - Market News: OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and maintain the growth forecast of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's crude oil production in September increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day. India and the US are expected to reach a trade agreement before the autumn deadline, and India hopes to buy more energy and natural gas from the US. World leaders participated in the signing ceremony of the Gaza peace agreement [9] 3.1.2 Asphalt - View: The spot price is continuously falling, and the asphalt futures price is also falling. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10] - Main Logic: OPEC + will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, the Middle East situation has cooled down, and the trade conflict has put pressure on the crude oil price, which in turn suppresses the asphalt futures price. The asphalt spot price is falling, the production plan in October has increased by 19% year - on - year, the supply tension has been greatly relieved, and the over - valued premium is starting to decline [10] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The expectation of production increase and the cooling of geopolitical situation lead to the decline of high - sulfur fuel oil futures price. Geopolitical upgrading has a short - term impact on the price, and attention should be paid to the changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [10] - Main Logic: OPEC + will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the processing demand of domestic refineries is increasing, the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, and the power generation demand in the Middle East is lower than expected, so the overall demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with limited demand space, but the current valuation is low and it follows the fluctuation of crude oil [12] - Main Logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The reduction of export tax rebates for refined oil in China may lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand for low - sulfur fuel oil [12] 3.1.5 Methanol - View: There is still capital gambling on the impact of Iran - related factors, and methanol rebounds cautiously. It is expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term [24] - Main Logic: On October 13, the methanol futures price rebounded. Some capital is gambling on the news that the unloading of Iranian - sanctioned ships may be blocked. Although the port inventory of methanol is still at a relatively high level, considering the high probability of Iranian - related disturbances in winter, methanol still has the value of low - level buying. However, it is restricted by the overall weak sentiment of the energy and chemical industry and the weak downstream olefin market [24] 3.1.6 Urea - View: There is a short - term improvement in transactions, but the downward pressure trend continues. The fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure after a short - term positive period [24] - Main Logic: On October 13, driven by the expected monthly guiding price of urea announced by the nitrogen fertilizer association in the next half - year, the downstream transactions improved and the futures price rose briefly. However, the fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and it is necessary to wait for the agricultural demand after the autumn sowing [24] 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - View: The port inventory has reached an inflection point and will accumulate slightly in the short term. The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [20] - Main Logic: The oil price is oscillating weakly, and the cost support is weak. The supply of ethylene glycol remains high, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the pressure of future arrivals is increasing. It is in a stage of weakening supply - demand balance, and the spot market is loose [20] 3.1.8 PX - View: After the oil price breaks through and then recovers, PX's supply and demand are both strong, and its profit is adjusted within a certain range. It is expected to oscillate within a range [13] - Main Logic: Trump's attitude has eased, and the international oil price has rebounded slightly after breaking through the low level. PX has followed the cost and fallen slightly. Fundamentally, there is no significant change. PTA has no further production reduction plan, and the polyester load is relatively stable, which provides some support for PX demand. However, PX's own supply is still in a strengthening trend [13] 3.1.9 PTA - View: There is no further production reduction plan, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [14][15] - Main Logic: The international oil price broke through and fell last Friday, and although it rebounded later, the cost support has been slightly dragged down. PTA factories have no further production reduction plan, and some devices will increase their load in the short term. With the expectation of new device commissioning, the basis is weak. The downstream polyester demand provides certain support, and the sales of polyester yarn have increased under the promotion of price concessions [14][15] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - View: The price is dragged down by the cost, but the processing fee has a certain support. The absolute value will follow the raw material price [21] - Main Logic: The upstream market is generally weak, and the short - fiber price has oscillated and fallen due to the cost. At a low price, it has triggered some speculative stockpiling, and the sales have increased slightly. It is expected to follow the upstream price in the short term, and the processing fee has some support [21] 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle - Chip - View: The low price has triggered speculative replenishment, and the processing fee has been further repaired. The absolute value will follow the raw material price, and the support at the lower end of the processing fee has increased [22] - Main Logic: Due to Trump's attitude easing over the weekend, the upstream raw material price did not fall deeply. The low price of bottle - chips has triggered some speculative replenishment, and combined with factory production reduction, the processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has been further repaired [22] 3.1.12 LLDPE - View: The fundamental support is limited, and it oscillates weakly under the influence of macro - factors [29] - Main Logic: Recently, the overall energy and chemical market has been oscillating weakly, and LLDPE has followed. The oil price is oscillating, and although the US has increased sanctions on Iran - related entities, the Iranian oil supply is still stable. The global supply is in an increasing period, and there is pressure of supply surplus. The plastic's own fundamental support is limited, and the peak season is coming to an end, so the upper - and middle - stream enterprises have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices [29] 3.1.13 PP - View: The cost support is limited, and it oscillates weakly [30] - Main Logic: The Sino - US trade friction has intensified again. The oil price is oscillating, and the supply is in an increasing period with the pressure of supply surplus. PP's own fundamental support is limited, with high production and limited demand, and the high - level inventory will suppress the price. It is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change of maintenance [30] 3.1.14 PL - View: The raw material support has weakened, and it oscillates weakly [31] - Main Logic: The market sentiment is bearish, and downstream buyers are cautious. Enterprises have difficulty in selling products and have to offer discounts. The regional differentiation is intensifying, and the high - price transactions are difficult to achieve [31] 3.1.15 PVC - View: There is still fundamental pressure, and it oscillates. The fundamental situation is under pressure, and it is expected to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariffs and the 14th Five - Year Plan on market expectations [32] - Main Logic: At the macro - level, Sino - US tariff disputes have arisen again. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamental situation is under pressure, with the cost moving down. The upstream autumn maintenance will increase in mid - October, the downstream start - up rate is weak, the export orders have improved, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [32] 3.1.16 Caustic Soda - View: The spot price has stabilized, and the short - term spot supply and demand have improved. The pressure on the spot market has been relieved, and short - positions should be closed at the appropriate time [33] - Main Logic: At the macro - level, Sino - US tariff disputes have arisen again. At the micro - level, the short - term spot supply and demand of caustic soda have improved. The procurement of some enterprises has relieved the pressure on 32% caustic soda in Shandong. The non - aluminum peak season is coming to an end, and the low inventory may drive non - aluminum enterprises to buy at low prices. The production of caustic soda will decline in mid - October due to maintenance [33] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Different products have different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.48 (change: 0.03), and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is - 52 (change: - 10) [34] - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis and warehouse receipts of various products also vary. For example, the basis of asphalt is 178 (change: 16), and the warehouse receipts are 43,900 [35] - Inter - variety Spread: The inter - variety spreads, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., also show different changes [37] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report also monitors the basis and spread of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but the specific content is not fully presented in the text [38][51][63] 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 13, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2233.00 (+0.01%), the commodity 20 index is 2525.09 (+0.17%), and the industrial products index is 2211.57 (-0.64%) [279] - Sector Index: The energy index on October 13, 2025, is 1139.91, with a daily decline of 1.42%, a 5 - day decline of 7.10%, a 1 - month decline of 4.63%, and a decline of 7.17% since the beginning of the year [281]