工业硅、多晶硅日评：或有压力-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, with limited improvement in demand, which may suppress the upper limit of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the supply side is still fluctuating, prices are consolidating at a high level, and there is significant pressure for further price increases in the short term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.38% to 8,805 yuan/ton [1] - Polysilicon: N-type dense material rose 0.39% to 51.25 yuan/kg, N-type re-feeding material rose 0.38% to 52.75 yuan/kg, N-type mixed material rose 0.50% to 50.25 yuan/kg, and N-type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.46% to 48,740 yuan/ton [1] - Others: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged, while the price of DMC rose 2.26% to 11,300 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - On October 13, Daquan Energy released its investor relations activity record for September 2025, stating that its Q3 polysilicon production is expected to be 27,000 - 30,000 tons, and it will make decisions on production rates based on business strategies [1] - On October 11, the Guizhou Energy Bureau announced the approved and filed wind and photovoltaic power generation projects from July - September 2025, with a total scale of nearly 6.5GW [1] Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - The supply side may tighten if northern silicon enterprises do not resume production on a large scale, but overall supply still has an increment. The demand side has limited improvement, and the market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the futures market. Hold out-of-the-money put options [1] Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - The supply side has some fluctuations, with expected production increments in October. The demand side is weak, and the high inventory of downstream raw materials makes it difficult for prices to rise further. Before the implementation of supply-side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]