基本?利好有限，继续关注宏观及政策动态

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - Affected by tariff expectations, the prices of most black building materials varieties fluctuated weakly during the day. The panic in the market was relatively limited due to the uncertainty of tariff increases and the weaker intensity compared to April. The prices continued to fluctuate weakly at night. In mid - October, the terminal demand of the industry remained poor, and the reduction of hot metal production limited the support for prices. In the fourth quarter, the influence of macro and policy factors increased, and attention should be paid to the possibility of positive signals from the macro and policy levels [1] - The current fundamental situation can hardly provide clear upward support for the prices of the sector's varieties. The tariff issue drags down the market sentiment and slightly affects the price performance of the sector. However, there are still expectations for overseas interest rate cuts and positive signals from domestic important meetings [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Analysis - Iron Element: Iron ore demand is supported at a high level, supply is expected to be stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap steel has insufficient fundamental drivers and is expected to follow the price of finished products [2] - Carbon Element: Coke has rigid demand support from hot metal, and its price is expected to remain stable. Coking coal's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and its price is expected to oscillate [2] - Alloys: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported in the short term but have downward pressure after the peak season [2] - Others: Glass may have a rebound space if post - holiday production and sales are good; otherwise, the price may be under pressure. Soda ash is in a supply - surplus pattern and is expected to oscillate widely [2][5] 2. Individual Variety Analysis - Steel: The inventory is at a moderately high level, the fundamentals are weak, and the overseas risks are increasing. The short - term price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited [7] - Iron Ore: The supply is stable, the demand is supported at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to limited upside space [7][8] - Scrap Steel: The fundamental drivers are insufficient, and the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [9] - Coke: The fundamentals are healthy in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable [10] - Coking Coal: The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [11] - Glass: If the post - holiday production and sales are good, there is a rebound space; otherwise, the price may decline. In the long term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction [11][12] - Soda Ash: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price is expected to oscillate widely and decline in the long term [14] - Manganese Silicon: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [15] - Ferrosilicon: There is short - term support, but the price may decline after the peak season [16] 3. Other Data - Commodity Index: On October 13, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index changed by +0.01%, +0.17%, and - 0.64% respectively [100] - Steel Industry Chain Index: On October 13, 2025, the steel industry chain index had a daily decline of - 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of +0.07%, a 1 - month decline of - 0.83%, and a decline of - 5.54% since the beginning of the year [102]