沪镍早报：接近区间底部-20251014

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend rating for nickel is "shock", and the medium - term view is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The main operating range of nickel is between 118,000 and 126,000 yuan/ton; there is no upward breakthrough momentum in the short - term, but a bullish outlook in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long when the price approaches the lower limit [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - Botswana implemented a new mining regulation on October 1st, 2025. If the government chooses not to acquire the corresponding equity of a mining right, mining companies must sell 24% of the new mining right to local investors. The previous regulation allowed the government to acquire 15% of the mining right, and a higher proportion for diamond projects [1] 2. Supply - For nickel ore, the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the previous riots in Indonesia may support the ore price. The nickel industry chain has been in an overall oversupply situation, and although the oversupply level may decline, the current situation is still one of oversupply, with relatively stable price ranges. For nickel iron, the profit in Indonesia is low but still positive, while domestic production is in the red. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron production continues to increase year - on - year. The production cost of electrowinning nickel for integrated pure - nickel enterprises has dropped to 118,500 yuan/ton, and the cost is relatively firm due to the support from the Indonesian government and the Philippines' rainy season. The bottom - line reference for pure nickel is about 118,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Demand - The profit of the stainless - steel industry has recovered recently but is still in the loss range. The full - cost tracked by SMM is about 13,879 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost is about 13,017 yuan/ton. There is still an oversupply expectation in the nickel - ore end, which may drive down the nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel price is still some distance from the cost support. In terms of demand, the real - estate market is at the bottom, small household appliances have recovered due to national subsidies, and there are few changes in tableware and medical devices. The substitution trend of infrastructure demand by 200 - series and 400 - series (low - quality stainless steel) continues. In the element competition, in a poor economic environment, the market pursues cost - effectiveness. Ternary batteries are gradually being replaced by lithium iron phosphate, and the high - nickel trend of ternary batteries has paused, with the proportion of 811 decreasing monthly and a shift to 622, which is generally unfavorable for nickel - element digestion, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Inventory and Structure - LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is increasing at an accelerated pace. The futures - spot and inter - month relationships maintain a Contango structure [3] 5. Other Data Analysis - The report also includes various data charts on macro - indicators, spot premiums and discounts, spreads, inventory, profit, and import profit and loss for metals such as lead, zinc, and nickel, which can be used for comprehensive analysis of the metals market [5][7][25][34][46][54]