铜早报：多单暂时持有-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is "Shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals provide a basis for speculation on the supply side, but the consumer side does not support continuous price increases. The overall trend will show pulse - like increases, which may not be long - lasting [2] - The market's trading logic has shifted to macro trading. With the re - rise of inflation expectations and the unexpected decline of employment expectations, the Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In September 2025, the domestic copper rod output was 99,960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,100 tons or 2.09%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate in September was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. Among them, enterprises with an annual capacity of over 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 61.94%, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%, while those with an annual capacity of less than 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 37.57%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. The copper rod market in September was only slightly better than in August [1] Market Conditions - The main contract of Shanghai copper in the night session closed at 86,520 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.02%. The trading volume was 85,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,362 lots to 200,500 lots. Technically, the market continued to recover losses, showing a typical bullish arrangement [1] Supply - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate in smelters has basically remained flat after a sudden decline, and the smelters' losses have expanded. It is necessary to determine whether it is the increase in smelting output or the tightening of the ore end. The 8 - month output data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that domestic smelting has increased significantly, falsifying the previous view that the decline in processing fees was due to ore shortage [2] Demand - Among the primary consumption sectors, only the output of copper rods remains at a historically high level, while the outputs of copper tubes, cables, copper strips, etc. are all declining [2] Inventory and Structure - The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased. The inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME have changed from rapid accumulation to slight depletion, while the Comex inventory has continued to accumulate rapidly, indicating the weakness of the demand side [2] Strategy Suggestion - Existing long positions should be held, and it is not advisable to open new positions for the time being [2]